Failure to plan is planning to fail – Post 1: The importance of vision

Ulrich Graute • 18 February 2021
A plan is a baseline giving orientation and the vision and strategy are among the most consequential elements of planning. Of course, in life nothing goes according to plan. However, without such a baseline where do we start and how do we improve? Therefore, Benjamin Franklin coined the phrase “Failure to plan is planning to fail”. This blog post in two parts does not repeat the broad literature on urban and territorial planning respectively on national development planning. Written during the Corona pandemic and in anticipation of other crises to follow the two parts feature two of common but most consequential deficits (lack of vision and lack of strategy) and how to overcome them.


Failure to plan is planning to fail

Post 1: The importance of vision


According to John Graham a vision is a mental picture of the result you want to achieve. It should be a picture so clear and strong that it will help make that result real. A vision is not a vague wish or dream or hope. It’s a picture of the real results of real efforts. It comes from the future and informs and energizes the present. A vision inspires action, is a practical guide for creating plans, setting goals and objectives, making decisions, and coordinating and evaluating the work on any project, large or small. A vision helps to keep organizations and groups focused and together; especially with complex projects and stressful tomes. An example for an outstanding vision is the Preamble of the Charter of the United Nations.

John Graham: Life on the edge. #5 – The importance of vision. https://www.johngraham.org/coach/5-the-importance-of-vision - accessed n 18 February 2021.

  The Vision of the United Nations:

Preamble of the Charter of the United Nations

 

WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS DETERMINED

  • to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war, which twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind, and
  • to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women and of nations large and small, and
  • to establish conditions under which justice and respect for the obligations arising from treaties and other sources of international law can be maintained, and
  • to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom,

AND FOR THESE ENDS

  • to practice tolerance and live together in peace with one another as good neighbours, and
  • to unite our strength to maintain international peace and security, and
  • to ensure, by the acceptance of principles and the institution of methods, that armed force shall not be used, save in the common interest, and
  • to employ international machinery for the promotion of the economic and social advancement of all peoples,

HAVE RESOLVED TO COMBINE OUR EFFORTS TO ACCOMPLISH THESE AIMS

Accordingly, our respective Governments, through representatives assembled in the city of San Francisco, who have exhibited their full powers found to be in good and due form, have agreed to the present Charter of the United Nations and do hereby establish an international organization to be known as the United Nations.

 

Source: UN Charter https://www.un.org/en/charter-united-nations/ - accessed on 18 February 2021

 


What happens if you skip the vision? I remember a project were mayors and representatives from academia envisioned a joint network. They took it easy and didn’t bother specifying their expectations. Well, after approval of the project it went into a year of crisis because it turned out that they had different ideas about the purpose of the network: Cities thought more about the ‘net’ and that they would like to meet once or twice a year for exchange. Representatives of academia thought more about ‘work’ and that they hoped for an intensive and on-going exchange of data and information as basis of research work. The missing of a joined vision for their network almost killed the project right from the beginning. So, be it a small or large project it’s always better to take the time to develop a vision and use it as the common basis for developing a policy, programme or project. 

 

 

The need for a vision as narrative of our future

 

The charter of the UN is still valid and inspiring. However, the world is currently facing a series of crises which the founders of the UN didn’t have in mind in 1945. Today, governance models and approaches of the UN and other international, national and local level are struggling to adapt to emerging challenges. At the same time the resources of our common earth are exploited. It will be necessary to establish a new development model that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. Yes, yes, that’s the old message of the 1987 Brundtland report ´Our Common Future’. It is still true but, unfortunately, we still not living up to it.

 

The 2030 Agenda of the UN as adopted by the member states in September 2015 is ambitious in its title ‘Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’. However, it has no clear vision in addition to that of the UN Charter. Instead, the 2030 Agenda presents itself as “a plan of action for people planet and prosperity”. Here is a problem: If you aim for nothing less than a ‘transformation of our world’ you need a vision as a narrative of that transformed world. Without that one gets what we currently face: UN, member states and many other stakeholders feel committed to implement the 2030 Agenda but at the same time they struggle to link the action plan adopted in 2015 with the dynamic situation in 2021. And this is because there is no common mental picture of our future which could guide us.

 

Well, we are living in a technology driven world where computer algorithms know more and more about us and have a growing impact on what we want. In addition, the UN is very keen on formulating targets, indicators for Agenda implementation and puts a strong focus on data collection monitoring. Therefore, one may wonder if computer wouldn’t be better than humans in writing the narrative of our future? No, in distinction to what could be delivered by a set of Algorithm Overlords of the Artificial Intelligence of our computers “we will need a new and compelling narrative of our future, based on an ethical vision of what human beings are and how they should live together. Such a vision, founded as it must be in our moral intuition, is one that only a human can offer or comprehend.”[1]


[1] David Mattin (2020): Designs for Life. In: Matthias Schrader, Volker Martens (Eds.): The Great Redesign. Frameworks for the Future. Hamburg, pp 38-46.



The silence of the lockdown a chance to reflect on the narrative for our future

 

Midway upon the journey of our life
I found myself within a forest dark,
For the straightforward pathway had been lost.

 Dante Alighieri, Devine Comedy (Inferno, Canto 1)

 

While the world is in lockdown it seems to be calm and quiet. Looking deeper, the ice under the lockdown is thin and below it's neither calm nor quiet. Instead, the world is in turmoil. The pandemic is developing mutants; the economic and social costs are growing every day. In the meantime, the climate crisis and numerous other natural and man-made disasters are waiting to get our full attention. And the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is off track. To summarize the current deplorable situation of the earth let me just refer to one person who should know. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, says everything in his Nelson Mandela Lecture of 18 July 2020 “Tackling the Inequality Pandemic: A New Social Contract for a New Era” [1]. Everything? Well, the Secretary General doesn't speak about own shortcomings of the UN.[2] However, apart from this partial blindness Guterres' speech is an excellent lecture calling for a great redesign in form of a New Social Contract.


[1] https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2020-07-18/secretary-generals-nelson-mandela-lecture-%E2%80%9Ctackling-the-inequality-pandemic-new-social-contract-for-new-era%E2%80%9D-delivered - accessed on 10 February 2021

[2] Aargauer Zeitung on 10 February 2021: http://ow.ly/9MzN50DwSqe


„More Trouble“: Two scientists look at the Corona development curve („flatten the curve“). What they don't see is the even higher and bigger curve of climate change

Source: Statistically Insignificant www.instagram.com/statisticallycartoon/

 

 

After the pandemic “back to normal", a "new normal" or a "never new normal"


Many just hope to return to the "normality" as it was known before Corona. Others look at the deplorable situation as described e.g. by Mr Guterres and call for a "build back better" and a “new normal”. Again, others take a step further and imagine a "new never normal". For instance, Matthias Schrader doesn't see behind the pandemic a new status quo. Instead he sees a continued development process. In his preface to the book The Great Redesign[1] he writes:

 

"I wish you courage in redesigning the "new never normal", and an eye for the big picture. Because real change requires staying power. Entrepreneurial short-sightedness does not help us. Normally the initial idea is not followed immediately by success but rather by a longer period of patient trial and error and constant improvement to carry through and establish innovation. Stay tuned. It could be great."

 

Of course, even the normality before the pandemic was marked by innovations and a more or less gradual transformation. To be challenged is good but at the same time the scenario of a “new never normal” is scary. Humans need normality for a balanced life. I doubt that humanity could adapt to a permanent “never new normal” if that would come close to a prolonged chaos. Therefore, a new normal deems preferable but there is no narrative for it yet. And here is the link to the subject of the post: Without a vision or narrative of our future we cannot develop a plan.


 

Call for a vision as narrative of our future

 

Dear reader, please use some of your time (in or out of lockdown) to think about what could be a compelling narrative of our future on which we all could agree regardless of political beliefs, religion, race, sex or ethnicity. Please, look also at existing visions. They are not necessarily bad but do they provide a full or only a partial narrative of our future. What’s missing? What should be added?

 

Everybody could write down or contribute to the vision as a mental model of our future. You might be a monk in a closure, a political leader, a staff member silenced by the conditions of a country or institution or you may be free to follow your own interests only. What matters is your creativity and imagination to produce a compelling narrative of our future as a vision to which everybody can commit. And imagine, with your narrative of our future you might win the Peace or Literature Nobel Prize one day.

 

Of course, for that vision it will require a strategy to implement it (see part 2 of the blog post). 



 

[1] Matthias Schrader (2020): Redesigning the "New Never Normal". In: Matthias Schrader and Volker Martens (Eds.): The Great Redesign. Frameworks for the Future. Hamburg, pp 9-11.




________

If you have any questions, comments or a request for advisory services please contact Ulrich Graute via ulrich.graute@ugraute.de

 

All posts on the subject Failure to plan is planning to fail will be available on the blog “With burning patience”: https://www.ugraute.de/blog-1

 

Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions

by Ulrich Graute 14 April 2025
None of the following supports the idea that urban sprawl is required or even helpful to build sustainable cities. However, it is argued that it may be part of the solution for the crisis of affordable housing in many countries of the world. With this post, I would like to encourage a debate, eg, at the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress #WPC61 on 1-4 December 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In 1976 and alarmed by rapid and uncontrolled urban growth, particularly in the developing world, the UN General Assembly called for the First United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat I) addressing the challenges and future of human settlements. Housing remained at the focus of the United Nations Human Settlement Programme UN-Habitat ever since, and this was reconfirmed at Habitat III in Quito 2016. The New Urban Agenda recognizes and promotes a "right to the city," meaning the right of all inhabitants to have equal access to the benefits and opportunities that cities offer. It emphasizes a vision where urban spaces are designed and used collectively for the benefit of all, including those in informal settlements. Yes a vision, but overall, the Agenda is not very strategic and invites more to raising picking instead of integrated problem solving. Meanwhile, cities keep struggling to cope with fast urbanization, migration and growing demand for larger apartments. Urban sprawl is criticized since the 1950s and 60s because of its large demand for land. No densely populated urban areas have higher costs for the water, energy and transportation grid. In addition, developers often focus on profitable housing development while they don’t care for urban infrastructure, public spaces, schools etc. The New Urban Agenda promotes urban density as a key strategy for sustainable and efficient urban development but that doesn’t help those who a looking for housing now. Conor Dougherty is the author of the book Golden Gates: The Housing Crisis and a Reckoning for the American Dream published on 10 April 2025 in the New York Times the article “Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it.” He doesn’t make any effort to paint urban sprawl in rosy colors. Instead, he describes how eg in Princeton, Texas, the nation’s third-fastest-growing city, infrastructure has struggled to keep up with growth. He analyzes how difficult and slow-moving densification efforts in cities are and states, “Even if all the regulatory restraints were removed tomorrow, developers couldn’t find enough land to satisfy America’s housing needs inside established areas. Consequently, much of the nation’s housing growth has moved to states in the South and Southwest, where a surplus of open land and willingness to sprawl has turned the Sun Belt into a kind of national sponge that sops up housing demand from higher-cost cities. The largest metro areas there have about 20 percent of the nation’s population, but over the past five years they have built 42 percent of the nation’s new single-family homes, according to a recent report by Cullum Clark, an economist at the George W. Bush Institute, a research center in Dallas.” For instance, Celina, Texas (picture), has 54,000 residents, compared with 8,000 just a decade ago, and the population is projected to hit 110,000 by 2030. The lack of urbane infrastructure, employment, greenery, and community is striking, but people keep coming because of affordability. While planners and others prefer denser and walkable neighbourhoods like 15-minute-cities, the money to build related infrastructure in addition to houses is often missing or would reduce affordability. A dilemma. There are good reasons to criticize the trend described for the US by Conor Dougherty, but it provides a chance to attain affordable housing for people who cannot find it elsewhere. And the history of these satellite towns has demonstrated that the missing infrastructure, employment and community can be added lateron. It seems, urban sprawl is not the solution, but it might be part of the solution, isn’t it? Let's discuss this here or later on other occasions, like eg the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress 'Cities & Regions in Action: Planning Pathways to Resilience and Quality of Life 1-4 December 2025, in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia #WPC61. Reference: Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it. By Conor Dougherty. The New York Times, April 10, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/magazine/suburban-sprawl-texas.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
by Ulrich Graute 8 March 2025
Picture: UN photo
by Ulrich Graute 25 February 2025
Click to see the map in the full scale or download map in pdf format here https://anatomyof.ai/img/ai-anatomy-map.pdf.
by Ulrich Graute 22 February 2025
About the challenge of providing advice on governance and development in times of disruption and transition (English with German captatio ns) Deutsch: Ulrich spricht darüber, wie es ist, in Zeiten von Umbruch, Wandel und vielfachen Krisen als erfahrener Berater zu arbeiten. Obwohl die Situation nicht einfach ist, kann man daraus auch Chancen für effizientere Institutionen und Unternehmen sehen. Erfahrung und Flexibilität sind dabei wichtig, um neue Wege zu finden. English: Ulrich talks about working as an experienced consultant in times of upheaval, change, and multiple crises. Although the situation is not easy, we can also see opportunities for more efficient institutions and companies. Experience and flexibility are important to find new pathways.
by Ulrich Graute 12 February 2025
"The development of highly capable AI is likely to be the biggest event in human history. The world must act decisively to ensure it is not the last event in human history. This conference, and the cooperative spirit of the AI Summit series, give me hope; but we must turn hope into action, soon, if there is to be a future we would want our children to live in." Professor Stuart Russell, IASEAI President and Distinguished Professor of Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley Please join me on 13 February 2025 at ARCS 9.0 for my keynote on 'Urban politics, planning, and economy in the Global South in times of fast developing AI' The two weeks before my conference presentation were full of dynamics in the field of AI, its politics, and development. First came the launch of the 500 billion US$ Stargate Project in the USA, followed by the launch of the Chinese open-source large language model (LLM) DeepSeek. On 6 February the International Association for Safe & Ethical AI held its inaugural conference in Paris, France. Prominent AI scientists including Stuart Russel and the 2024 Physics Nobel Laureate Geoffrey Hinton called for international cooperation to ensure safe and ethical artificial intelligence. On 10 and 11 February 2025, France co-chaired by India hosted the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit in Paris. The speeches by Heads of State and Government including the President of France, the Prime Minister of India, the President of the EU Commission, and the US Vice President gave the impression of how different countries of the world try to position themselves in a race for AI leadership. Urban politics, planning, and economy, not only in the Global South, need longer-term frameworks. How should digital transformation and urban planning be approached in cities facing multiple crises and the new wave of AI technological innovation? The latter is according to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others unprecedented in scale and speed but it is expected to affect all spheres of life. ARCS 9.0 schedule and Zoom link for Inaugural, plenaries and Valedictory. Date - 13th Feb to 15th Feb 2025 Join Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/95336599575?pwd=NExxgf8gBoubEfKRhhtbalM1ZYjQph.1 Meeting ID: 953 3659 9575
by Ulrich Graute 22 January 2025
Source of the picture OpenAI: https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/
by Ulrich Graute 1 January 2025
It was a tremendous privilege in my life to meet Rosalynn and Jimmy Carter for the first time in 1984 (picture) and then again in the summer of 1985 during my internship at Koinonia Farm near Americus, Georgia (USA). Jimmy Carter, who served as the 39th president of the U.S. from 1977 to 1981, died on December 29, 2024, at his home in Plains, Ga. Jimmy Carter was a lifelong farmer who worked with his hands building houses for the poor well into his 90s. I didn't agree with him on all issues (the early 1980s were the time of a new US missile deployment in Germany ordered by Jimmy Carter and a large peace movement against it) but he took the time to discuss it with me and others at Koinonia Farm. That alone was amazing. Even more mind-blowing was that he continued hands-on work on peacebuilding and house renovation for the poor around the world with Habitat for Humanity International well into his 90s. If in my career providing hands-on support became more important than climbing my own career path, this was also due to the example Jimmy Carter gave in the decades after his Presidency. I learned a lot from him about working for peace with humbleness, love, and perseverance. Read more in the New York Times about why Jimmy Carter was known as much for his charity and diplomatic work later in life as he was for his single presidential term, which ended in 1981. https://lnkd.in/d9qxSmTM *. *. *. *. * Note: This post was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graute_learning-to-work-hands-on-for-peace-from-activity-7279396908270309376-BBjV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
by Ulrich Graute 2 December 2024
In 2024, for the first time since 2000, the Parties to the United Nations Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate change, and desertification faced a very busy 3 months, moving from large Conferences of Parties (COP) in Cali (Colombia) for biodiversity in October to Baku (Azerbaijan) for climate in November to Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) for desertification in December. On top of this Triple-COP, there was the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development and the UN Summit of the Future in September in New York (USA) while UN-Habitat held its World Urban Forum in Cairo (Egypt), and let’s not forget the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5) which ended last weekend in Busan, South Korea. No real breakthroughs were reported but I noticed many promises to double future efforts. There is a lot that can be critically reviewed about the events, eg what’s the purpose of moving approximately 100.000+ delegates, UN staffers, and other participants worldwide if the necessary political will to agree and resources available are insufficient and the outcomes are limited accordingly? But such a critique would be a bit unfair since I don’t know how many new ideas and initiatives were born during those official meetings, side events, and informal chats that might bloom up in upcoming years despite of the multicrises we’re living in. What needs to be criticized is that the UN System is not progressing on its task to implement its many mandates more “synergistically” by targeting policies, programs, and initiatives to jointly address the goals of the Rio Conventions, SDGs, etc. Instead, the conferences referred to each other but worked mainly within their silos. This is not appropriate in a world full of interrelations and interdepensies. Well, no individual or group can follow up on every aspect, and swarm intelligence of conferences with thousands of participants each seems to be no functioning alternative. But what else could be done? To give an example: How about building an AI-based Large Language Model (LLM) trained with the UN Charter, all UN declarations, national and subnational resolutions, regulations, and programmes? AI Agents for the different conventions and agendas should then be asked to coordinate and propose “synergistic” proposals across policy levels. Of course, the use of artificial intelligence should be wisely supervised by a team of AI experts and professionals from all affected fields. I wouldn’t expect AI applications to solve all problems but to better inform decision-makers and UN agencies on integrated scenarios. This could help to increase efficiency, avoid duplicating efforts, and increase the overall problem-solving capacity of the UN. I would be happy to support such work with my governance and development experience across all policy levels. Picture source: https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/cop-nature-climate-adaptation-mitigation
by Ulrich Graute 14 November 2024
Since the first climate COP in 1995, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency has been representing local and regional governments at the processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The LGMA also represents ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners and Global Taskforce of Local and Regional Governments. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability acts as the Focal Point of LGMA. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point, recognizing the essential role of these governments in enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions NDSs and driving transformative climate action. The LGMA is atively present in Baku with a robust agenda, numerous partners, and an esteemed delegation of political leaders representing local and subnational governments. At the center of the presence is the Multilevel Action & Urbanization Pavilion as the global stage for the city and region climate agenda during COP29. The Pavilion brings into focus not only the challenges and needs, but also the accomplishments and commitments of local and subnational actors on climate action. The Pavilion is open from 12 to 22 November in the Blue Zone, Area E, Pavilion I15. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the High-Level Opening on 12 November at 10:00 AM. Please find the agenda of LGMA attached. Please visit also the Youtube channel of ICLEI Global for daily updates https://lnkd.in/dddDCKtA Ulrich Graute - ISOCARP Online Delegate at COP29 and Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee
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Report on the Urban Conversation on Ethical Use of AI in Urban Planning at the 60th World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy on 11 OCTOBER 2024
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