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Failure to plan is planning to fail – Post 2: Strategy as precondition for goal achievement

Ulrich Graute • 18 February 2021
A plan is a baseline giving orientation and the vision and strategy are among the most consequential elements of planning. Of course, in life nothing goes according to plan. However, without such a baseline where do we start and how do we improve? Therefore, Benjamin Franklin coined the phrase “Failure to plan is planning to fail”. This blog post in two parts does not repeat the broad literature on urban and territorial planning respectively on national development planning. Written during the Corona pandemic and in anticipation of other crises to follow the two parts feature two of common but most consequential deficits (lack of vision and lack of strategy) and how to overcome them.


Failure to plan is planning to fail

Post 2: Strategy as precondition for goal achievement


The purpose of strategic planning

In distinction from a detailed plan a strategy (from Greek στρατηγία stratēgia, "art of troop leader; office of general, command, generalship") is the general action plan to achieve one or more long-term or overall goals under conditions of uncertainty. It is based on a joint vision and describes strategic themes, goals, quantifiable objectives, tactics and success measures for goal achievement with the resources available. Corporate and military strategies are often not public to prevent the competitor or enemy from taking counteractions. In peaceful international cooperation this is not possible. Instead, where a contribution and own initiative is expected from a large number of stakeholders including member states, UN system entities, governmental and non-governmental stakeholders it is a must that they not only share the same vision but also understand and support the strategy and make their own commitments accordingly.



Many strategies fail because they’re not actually strategies

There are many policy documents in public and private sector including in development cooperation and national, urban and territorial planning that bear the word ‘strategy’ prominently in the title. For decision-makers the term strategy must have something irresistible. It suggests competence, a strategic forward looking and long-sighted approach and leadership – and which decision-maker doesn’t want to demonstrate that?

Unfortunately, where partners take it already easy with developing and committing to a joint vision one shouldn’t be surprised when the same happens with respect to strategy development. In practice, lack of or weak strategies is a phenomenon known in the public and the private sector. Freek Vermeulen (1) analyses the subject in the Harvard Business Review (November 08, 2017) under the self-explanatory title Many Strategies Fail Because They’re Not Actually Strategies. He identified that strategy consultants come in, do their work, and document the new strategy in a PowerPoint presentation and a weighty report. Then some town hall meetings are organized, employees are told to change their behavior, balanced scorecards are reformulated, and budgets are set aside to support initiatives that fit the new strategy. And then … nothing happens. He then further recalls that a real strategy involves a clear set of choices that define what the firm is going to do and what it’s not going to do. Many strategies fail to get implemented, despite the ample efforts of hard-working people, because they do not represent a set of clear choices. With just a collection of goals a so-called strategy does not tell you what you are going to do; all it does is tell you what you hope the outcome will be. 

(1) Freek Vermeulen (2017) Many Strategies Fail Because They’re Not Actually Strategies. Harvard Business review. https://hbr.org/2017/11/many-strategies-fail-because-theyre-not-actually-strategies - accessed on 17 February 2021.



Strategic choices for the Agenda 2030 and the New Urban Agenda to recover from crises

The United Nations knows not only one but several agendas aiming at a transformation for sustainable development. For the purpose of this post I analyzed the Agenda 2030 titled Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (A/RES/70/1) and the New Urban Agenda (NUA) (A/RES/71/256). Both documents are impressive as they list numerous ambitious goals. The NUA includes an entire chapter listing transformative commitments and pledges. The Agenda 2030 does the same in the chapter The New Agenda (articles 18 -38). But what is the value of these commitments, acknowledgements and pledges if the implementation remains voluntary, without a vision, strategy and agreement of sanctions in case of non-compliance?

On the positive side, it is to be highlighted that the so-called plans for actions include also descriptions of means of implementation. They do no substitute a strategy. However, the goals, commitments and means of implementation allow in principle to add a vision, i.e. a narrative of our common future, and to develop quantifiable objectives, tactics and success measures for goal achievement with the resources available. Thus, there is a chance to overcome existing deficits.

Climate change, COVID-19 and related economic and social challenges are likely to increase pressure on the UN to review and update own agendas. And as long as the vision and strategy of current agendas are not compelling they are vulnerable. First initiatives have been launched already. For instance, the Doha Forum, in partnership with the Stimson Center’s Just Security 2020 program, released on 30 Nov 2020 its new report: Coping with New and Old Crises: Global and Regional Cooperation in an Age of Epidemic Uncertainty. The report’s analysis and ideas aim to spur greater, and more open, discussion and debate on the role that global governance institutions and novel, public-private partnerships can have in seeking a recovery from the pandemic that is broad-based and durable, equitable, and green. The report is not on how to achieve the Agenda 2030 after the pandemic. Instead, it proposes a new roadmap 2023 with a focus on four newly formulated thematic clusters. Highlight for institutional revitalization is a UN-linked new G20+. (2)


(2) Doha Report https://lnkd.in/dYC8C-M - accessed n 18 February 2021


It's not clear what's the strategy behind the Report and how influential the Doha Report and other initiatives will be. It will depend among others on pandemic and political developments in upcoming months. However, a review, update and even a substantial dismantling of the current agendas is possible in coping with new and old crises. And since decision making in context of the UN can be very slow or even blocked there is also the option that no real decision is taken and officially nothing changes. But since the 2030 Agenda is already off track now review could mean its slow death. 

The positive effect of a challenge of the 2030 Agenda would be that the tabling of alternative proposals will generate strategic choices.


For those who invested since 2015 in the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and NUA this is a chance to improve the framework of agenda implementation. In this context, it certainly will be helpful if they make up their case, add a compelling narrative and strategy. All stakeholders could win if the expected dialogue in the coming months would generate a vision, strategy and reliable commitments.

 

In preparation of this process it also may be helpful if supporters of the 2030 Agenda could better carve out the estimated and other anticipated gains of agenda implementation.

To give an example: National Urban Policies (NUP) and UN-Habitat’s Guidelines of Urban and Territorial Planning (IG-UTP) are already mentioned in the NUA. They aim at better cross sector and multi-level policy coordination to make the best use of limited sources in cities and territories. In principle such means of implementation can be of benefit for the entire 2030 Agenda and in response to COVID-19 and other crises. Better cross sector and multi-level coordination is at the heart of the interrelated web of SDGs. UN-Habitat is offering them on there service list and is ready to do depending of funds available.


The question is: Are such means of implementation really just some tools among many others and one shouldn't bother too much. Or, are these tools raw diamonds with the potential to boost the entire agenda implementation? I cannot give a final answer because nobody is doing a stress test. And without a stress test the real value remains unknown. Imagine, the UN has developped thousands of studies and hundreds of tools. I wonder how many are just sitting on some shelf because they never were assessed from a strategic point of view. The interns, short term staff and consultants who did the bulk work may have left the institution since long with their institutional memory and the managers still in charge are flooded with emerging and ongoing tasks, faced with budget challenges, high staff turnover and since one year also by the pandemic and lockdown. I understand that the Secretary General comes to very drastic descriptions of the situation (see my blog post on the Importance of Vision of 18 February 2021). However, the good thing is that the UN with its staff has still a pretty good institutional memory, shelves full of studies and tools, and with its country and project offices the UN is present throughout the world. It's time to become more strategic, count the assets and demonstrate to the world the UN's strategic value.


For the above mentioned means of implementation this requred that they should be assessed and offert as a stratgic choice. Listed on shopping lists (often called toolbox etc) they are no real strategic choices because the potential cot and benefits of their implementation are not yet well analysed and estimated. Yes, decision makers e.g. from national or local governments like project shopping lists to pick from and they tend to take offers backed by donor funding. This is the way much of traditional development cooperation works. A more modern approach would be that the UN and other international organizations (being aware of the potential value of their tools and services) explain to member states and other partners what's potentially in it if they use the tools, approaches and services. For instance, how much more effective and efficient a government could deliver services if they would follow principles of integrated and multi-level planning. This would give them an idea on cost and benefits and on the own commitment they would have to make. Yes, and only now they would have a strategic choice.

 

Now look again at the many 'We commit' phrases in the 2030 Agenda and NUA and imagine member states would reconfirm them based on a strategy with strategic choices. It might generate a much more realistic but not necessarily less ambitious agenda. It's just that the vision, strategy and related strategic choices would make commitments easier.



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If you have any questions, comments or a request for advisory services please contact Ulrich Graute via ulrich.graute@ugraute.de

 

All posts on the subject Failure to plan is planning to fail will be available on the blog “With burning patience”: https://www.ugraute.de/blog-1


Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions

by Ulrich Graute 1 January 2025
It was a tremendous privilege in my life to meet Rosalynn and Jimmy Carter for the first time in 1984 (picture) and then again in the summer of 1985 during my internship at Koinonia Farm near Americus, Georgia (USA). Jimmy Carter, who served as the 39th president of the U.S. from 1977 to 1981, died on December 29, 2024, at his home in Plains, Ga. Jimmy Carter was a lifelong farmer who worked with his hands building houses for the poor well into his 90s. I didn't agree with him on all issues (the early 1980s were the time of a new US missile deployment in Germany ordered by Jimmy Carter and a large peace movement against it) but he took the time to discuss it with me and others at Koinonia Farm. That alone was amazing. Even more mind-blowing was that he continued hands-on work on peacebuilding and house renovation for the poor around the world with Habitat for Humanity International well into his 90s. If in my career providing hands-on support became more important than climbing my own career path, this was also due to the example Jimmy Carter gave in the decades after his Presidency. I learned a lot from him about working for peace with humbleness, love, and perseverance. Read more in the New York Times about why Jimmy Carter was known as much for his charity and diplomatic work later in life as he was for his single presidential term, which ended in 1981. https://lnkd.in/d9qxSmTM *. *. *. *. * Note: This post was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graute_learning-to-work-hands-on-for-peace-from-activity-7279396908270309376-BBjV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
by Ulrich Graute 2 December 2024
In 2024, for the first time since 2000, the Parties to the United Nations Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate change, and desertification faced a very busy 3 months, moving from large Conferences of Parties (COP) in Cali (Colombia) for biodiversity in October to Baku (Azerbaijan) for climate in November to Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) for desertification in December. On top of this Triple-COP, there was the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development and the UN Summit of the Future in September in New York (USA) while UN-Habitat held its World Urban Forum in Cairo (Egypt), and let’s not forget the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5) which ended last weekend in Busan, South Korea. No real breakthroughs were reported but I noticed many promises to double future efforts. There is a lot that can be critically reviewed about the events, eg what’s the purpose of moving approximately 100.000+ delegates, UN staffers, and other participants worldwide if the necessary political will to agree and resources available are insufficient and the outcomes are limited accordingly? But such a critique would be a bit unfair since I don’t know how many new ideas and initiatives were born during those official meetings, side events, and informal chats that might bloom up in upcoming years despite of the multicrises we’re living in. What needs to be criticized is that the UN System is not progressing on its task to implement its many mandates more “synergistically” by targeting policies, programs, and initiatives to jointly address the goals of the Rio Conventions, SDGs, etc. Instead, the conferences referred to each other but worked mainly within their silos. This is not appropriate in a world full of interrelations and interdepensies. Well, no individual or group can follow up on every aspect, and swarm intelligence of conferences with thousands of participants each seems to be no functioning alternative. But what else could be done? To give an example: How about building an AI-based Large Language Model (LLM) trained with the UN Charter, all UN declarations, national and subnational resolutions, regulations, and programmes? AI Agents for the different conventions and agendas should then be asked to coordinate and propose “synergistic” proposals across policy levels. Of course, the use of artificial intelligence should be wisely supervised by a team of AI experts and professionals from all affected fields. I wouldn’t expect AI applications to solve all problems but to better inform decision-makers and UN agencies on integrated scenarios. This could help to increase efficiency, avoid duplicating efforts, and increase the overall problem-solving capacity of the UN. I would be happy to support such work with my governance and development experience across all policy levels. Picture source: https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/cop-nature-climate-adaptation-mitigation
by Ulrich Graute 14 November 2024
Since the first climate COP in 1995, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency has been representing local and regional governments at the processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The LGMA also represents ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners and Global Taskforce of Local and Regional Governments. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability acts as the Focal Point of LGMA. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point, recognizing the essential role of these governments in enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions NDSs and driving transformative climate action. The LGMA is atively present in Baku with a robust agenda, numerous partners, and an esteemed delegation of political leaders representing local and subnational governments. At the center of the presence is the Multilevel Action & Urbanization Pavilion as the global stage for the city and region climate agenda during COP29. The Pavilion brings into focus not only the challenges and needs, but also the accomplishments and commitments of local and subnational actors on climate action. The Pavilion is open from 12 to 22 November in the Blue Zone, Area E, Pavilion I15. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the High-Level Opening on 12 November at 10:00 AM. Please find the agenda of LGMA attached. Please visit also the Youtube channel of ICLEI Global for daily updates https://lnkd.in/dddDCKtA Ulrich Graute - ISOCARP Online Delegate at COP29 and Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee
by Ulrich Graute 19 October 2024
Report on the Urban Conversation on Ethical Use of AI in Urban Planning at the 60th World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy on 11 OCTOBER 2024
by Ulrich Graute 1 October 2024
Date: 11 October 2024 Time: 10:45 - 13:15 Room: Accademie. Fisiocritici Session background and a short description of the Content Cities form the heart of human development and innovation, with 80% of global GDP generated within them and according to the United Nations approximately 56% of the world’s population now live in cities, and likely to reach nearly 70% by 2050. At the same time, the urban world is on a journey to revitalize cities, build new cities for growing populations, to dismantle inequalities, and to create a sustainable urban legacy for future generations. The growth and demands of cities are rapidly changing and looking (or exploring) for new systems and planning tools. In this situation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides a transformative potential in managing and planning cities. It can support, analyze, and predict the impact of policy changes, demographic shifts and development plans. AI facilitates a valuable foundation for productive dialogue and constructive debate between municipal authorities, and the public and private sector. AI enables the People-focused city through systems integration and collaborations. Simultaneously, the application of generative AI in the public domain brings a number of risks and pitfalls. To assure an ethical use of the new wave of innovation in planning it is necessary to strike a careful balance between risk mitigation and harnessing its capabilities for public good and resilience. The central concept of modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the intelligent agent. As of today, we have limitations to building one general-purpose AI program that does everything, instead AI developers build different types of agent programs for different types of problems and contexts. AI researchers agree that the new wave of innovation will impact all spheres of life and require more actors for future developments of AI. The discussion on the use of AI cannot be left alone to IT programmers and code developers. In this context, the objective of the conversation is to bring together planning practitioners and experts from city-making to discuss the use and potential impact of AI in urban planning and management and the related leadership of ISOCARP in the global dialogue on AI governance and capacity building of planners. Recent examples eg from Australia and Saudi Arabia will be presented along with panel discussions. Session Organizers Dr Ulrich Graute, Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee, Berlin Dr Sunil Dubey, The UNSW Cities Institute, Sydney. 1. Introduction to the theme of the session by Ulrich Graute 2. The making of inclusive, prosperous and sustainable cities and the new challenges and opportunities provided by AI and Data 2.1 The case of Australia - Key note by Dr Sarah Hill, CEO Greater Sydney Commission and Western Parkland City Authority (New South Wales Govt, former) ‘Planning New Cities and Inclusive economic development’ - Western Sydney Aerotropolis – Australia’s 22nd Century City Making through Community, Creativity and Innovation. 2.2 The case of Saudi Arabia (10 min) Progress, Peace & Prosperity 2030 – How Saudi Cities are transforming using data and power of Ai. Dr Sunil Dubey 3. Roundtable Moderation: Ulrich Graute Guiding questions include AI in Urban Planning: Navigating the Intersection of Technology and Values – AI as a technical tool and/or as co-pilot in planning New Cities and inclusive economic development. Including AI in existing planning systems and processes and the requirement eg of a regulatory framework and capacity-building. What shape will AI have on future cities? ISOCARP and the new wave of technological innovation. Panelists: Sarah Hill, Executive Project Director (Public Investment Fund PIF, Saudi Arabia) Eric Huybrecht, Congress Director ISOCARP’s 60th WPC, Institute Paris Region Elisabeth Belpaire, ISOCARP President-Elect Ulrich Graute, Chair of ISOCARP SciCom Sunil Dubey, Smart Cities thought leader. Website of the 60th ISOCARP World Planning Congress https://isocarp.org/activities/60th-wpc-siena-2024/ Website of the Academy of Social Sciences (UK) AI in urban planning: risks and opportunities https://acss.org.uk/publications/ai-in-urban-planning-risks-and-opportunities/
by Ulrich Graute 15 August 2024
Privacy Communicting with AI raises privacy concerns A CV is personal documents including private information you may not want to share with everybody. Therefore, the sending of your CV to somebody (eg as part of an application or business offer) is usually considered as confidential. Using generative AI, for instance ChatGPT, to work on your CV, website or LinkedIn profile should be carefully considered because the info you share about yourself with ChatGPT stays with ChatGPT even if you delete it from your account after you finished your conversation. Nonetheless, I decided to take it easier using AI because my profile and CV is no secret in anyway. Through dozens of publications since the 1990s, speeches at many conferences worldwide, as blogger with an own website (www.ugraute.de) and a LinkedIn profile with close to 6000 followers you can find everything what’s written in my CV somewhere on the internet. And, most importantly, I carefully review everything that AI suggests to me, I review and finalize texts before I use them. While I cannot fully exclude misuse of information, the responsibility for the content of my website and CV remains with me. And I still use a CV version not aided by AI for business offers and applications. AI as a second eye - When should you consider using AI to review your CV and profile? After 16 years of mostly (but not only) working for the United Nations I am now shifting more attention beyond the UN to the private sector, national and local authorities, other international organizations, NGOs etc. All UN agencies have their own mandates, interests and priorities. As UN staffer and later as UN consultant I learnt the rules of the institution and lived with the limitations they generate for management and goal achievement. However, the UN, with its historical baggage of countless mandates, inadequate structures and resources and some overly cautious employees, at times stands in its own way. I want to continue supporting global cooperation using my global perspective, my skills in project and program management, cross-cultural communication, policy analysis and stakeholder cooperation. However, it is time to refocus and look at my skills and achievements from a different, a non-UN perspective. This is where AI comes into play as an additional opportunity to support the reorientation of my or your career. AI supports my own reflections on my interests and strategy and it does it in a very inspirational way. I recommend the same to others but, if possible, it should be only an opportunity in addition to exchange with friends, colleagues, books, trainers, coaches etc. How did I use Chat GPT to review my website and CV? ChatGPT is a conversational tool, and it’s for free in its basic version. You can login here: https://chatgpt.com/auth/login. After opening an account and login you find a box where you can enter you question (called prompt). You push Enter and get an answer within seconds. If the answer is not inspirational, correct or satisfying you just go on submitting a new or modified prompt. This way conversations with ChatGPT becomes conversational and easy. In this process ChatGPT gets to know you better and learns from your prompts. Prompting, ie formulating the right questions is key to get useful answers out of the conversation and it’s worth to spend some time training how to prompt. In my case, an earlier prompt submitted to ChatGPT had produced already this suggestion: “Adjust your communication style to match the language and expectations of non-UN clients, avoiding overly technical or UN-specific jargon.” That was the point when ChatGPT confirmed my own guess that I have to change communication when I look beyond the UN world. To further explore this, I submitted additional prompts including this one: “ChatGPT, please rewrite my CV in a style more appealing to private companies.” The answer after my own review and fine tuning produced the short CV version which you can find here: https://www.ugraute.de/bio-and-cv Could I have produced this without AI? Of course, I have produced two pages versions of my CV on my own. The point is, that many things which are super important at the UN as “ an animal of its own kind ” are not so relevant outside of the UN. In such situations it may take a lot of time to decide what to leave in and what to take out of your CV. A second eye like AI proposing specific cuts and a repackaging can be very inspirational and helpful to get a fresh and crispier look at your own experience and credentials. I also liked very much that ChatGPT explained its approach to me: “To make your CV more appealing to private companies, I'll focus on making the language more dynamic, emphasizing your key achievements, leadership roles, and strategic impact. I'll also streamline the format for clarity and brevity.” Of course, I reviewed the suggested version of my CV and other website texts revised by AI to confirm the correctness of the content. Overall, this review exercise is a test to use a new technical tool. It is certainly inspirational. Success remains to be seen but that is also the case when I review my CV for an application or if I review my website in a traditional way. I decided for an open approach to use AI and to talk about my personal experience in this post, because in this new wave of innovation, we are all learners and can help each other. As adviser, I like to share, teach, and keep learning, inside or outside of the UN.
by Ulrich Graute 8 August 2024
Figure: Human-in-the-loop intervention. ‘The Ethical Concerns of Artificial Intelligence in Urban Planning’ Thomas W. Sanchez, Marc Brenman, and Xinyue Ye (2024)
by Ulrich Graute 3 August 2024
Human Compatible - AI and the Problem of Control
by Ulrich Graute 9 July 2024
A slide from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) presented at the opening of HLPF highlights that only 17% of the SDG targets are on track
by Ulrich Graute 5 July 2024
Background and Objectives The Gerd Albers Award (GAA) is celebrating inspiring publications such as books and essays. It was established in 1999 in honor of Professor Gerd Albers, a co-founder and past president of ISOCARP, who placed a particular emphasis on the task of publishing as a means of elucidating both the current debate and practical achievements in the planning field. This reputable award is given for the high-quality academic publications written by ISOCARP members. Eligible entries Pertinent submissions include the following publications by ISOCARP members published in the period between July 1, 2023, and June 31, 2024: • Books and/or Book chapters • Journal articles • Published project reports Exhibition catalogues and/or unpublished reports are ineligible. Unpublished journal articles are eligible if the publisher’s acceptance letter is attached to the article submitted. Evaluation criteria Content: • Thematic introduction • Contribution to discussions on the topic • Consistence and coherence (conceptual background, methodological approach) • Target audience Design: • Clarity • Technical requirements • Production Language All languages are eligible, although the “official languages” of the Society are English, French, German, and Spanish. Non-English entries must have an extended abstract in English (min. 3 pages). Jury The jury consists of three members of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee and the A&P Program Director. The deliberations and votes of the jury are confidential. Prof. Sebnem Hoskara Dr. Ulrich Graute Dr. Dorota Kamrowska-Załuska Prof. Ali A. Alraouf (A&P Program Director) Substance of the Award The Award is bestowed in three categories: GAA ‘Best Book’, GAA ‘Best Article’ and Special Mention. The Award winners are announced during the official ceremony at the ISOCARP annual World Planning Congress. GAA ‘Best Book’ and GAA ‘Best Article’ get two years of free membership to ISOCARP, official ISOCARP award certification and its dissemination through the ISOCARP website, social media and newsletter. Special Mention gets an official ISOCARP award certification and its dissemination through the ISOCARP website, social media and newsletter. Who is eligible? • Scholars • Writers • Book Authors • Researchers • Urban and City Critics • Professors and Academics Prize • Recognition at the ISOCARP 60th Congress in Siena at the Awards Special Session. • Certificate. • ISOCARP Medal. • Waiving form the registration for a single representative of the winners. • One year Membership at ISOCARP for a single representative of the winners. Registration fee 150 Euros for each entry in the Best Book Award (a candidate can apply with multiple proposals). 50 Euros for each entry in the Best Paper Award (a candidate can apply with multiple proposals). Submission material ⦁ Contribution (book/chapter/article) in pdf format Application procedure 1. Submit your online application https://isocarp.org/gerd-albers-award-2024-submission-form/ 2. Pay the registration fee: 150 Euros for Best Book Award and 50 Euros for Best Paper Award 3. Please, send your application to Ali Alraouf, ISOCARP Board member (alialraouf@isocarp.org) and ISOCARP HQ (awards@isocarp.org). Kindly specify the email subject: GAA 2024 Candidature. Deadline for submission August 15, 2024 Submit your application here https://isocarp.org/gerd-albers-award-2024-submission-form/
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