Failure to plan is planning to fail – Post 2: Strategy as precondition for goal achievement

Ulrich Graute • 18 February 2021
A plan is a baseline giving orientation and the vision and strategy are among the most consequential elements of planning. Of course, in life nothing goes according to plan. However, without such a baseline where do we start and how do we improve? Therefore, Benjamin Franklin coined the phrase “Failure to plan is planning to fail”. This blog post in two parts does not repeat the broad literature on urban and territorial planning respectively on national development planning. Written during the Corona pandemic and in anticipation of other crises to follow the two parts feature two of common but most consequential deficits (lack of vision and lack of strategy) and how to overcome them.


Failure to plan is planning to fail

Post 2: Strategy as precondition for goal achievement


The purpose of strategic planning

In distinction from a detailed plan a strategy (from Greek στρατηγία stratēgia, "art of troop leader; office of general, command, generalship") is the general action plan to achieve one or more long-term or overall goals under conditions of uncertainty. It is based on a joint vision and describes strategic themes, goals, quantifiable objectives, tactics and success measures for goal achievement with the resources available. Corporate and military strategies are often not public to prevent the competitor or enemy from taking counteractions. In peaceful international cooperation this is not possible. Instead, where a contribution and own initiative is expected from a large number of stakeholders including member states, UN system entities, governmental and non-governmental stakeholders it is a must that they not only share the same vision but also understand and support the strategy and make their own commitments accordingly.



Many strategies fail because they’re not actually strategies

There are many policy documents in public and private sector including in development cooperation and national, urban and territorial planning that bear the word ‘strategy’ prominently in the title. For decision-makers the term strategy must have something irresistible. It suggests competence, a strategic forward looking and long-sighted approach and leadership – and which decision-maker doesn’t want to demonstrate that?

Unfortunately, where partners take it already easy with developing and committing to a joint vision one shouldn’t be surprised when the same happens with respect to strategy development. In practice, lack of or weak strategies is a phenomenon known in the public and the private sector. Freek Vermeulen (1) analyses the subject in the Harvard Business Review (November 08, 2017) under the self-explanatory title Many Strategies Fail Because They’re Not Actually Strategies. He identified that strategy consultants come in, do their work, and document the new strategy in a PowerPoint presentation and a weighty report. Then some town hall meetings are organized, employees are told to change their behavior, balanced scorecards are reformulated, and budgets are set aside to support initiatives that fit the new strategy. And then … nothing happens. He then further recalls that a real strategy involves a clear set of choices that define what the firm is going to do and what it’s not going to do. Many strategies fail to get implemented, despite the ample efforts of hard-working people, because they do not represent a set of clear choices. With just a collection of goals a so-called strategy does not tell you what you are going to do; all it does is tell you what you hope the outcome will be. 

(1) Freek Vermeulen (2017) Many Strategies Fail Because They’re Not Actually Strategies. Harvard Business review. https://hbr.org/2017/11/many-strategies-fail-because-theyre-not-actually-strategies - accessed on 17 February 2021.



Strategic choices for the Agenda 2030 and the New Urban Agenda to recover from crises

The United Nations knows not only one but several agendas aiming at a transformation for sustainable development. For the purpose of this post I analyzed the Agenda 2030 titled Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (A/RES/70/1) and the New Urban Agenda (NUA) (A/RES/71/256). Both documents are impressive as they list numerous ambitious goals. The NUA includes an entire chapter listing transformative commitments and pledges. The Agenda 2030 does the same in the chapter The New Agenda (articles 18 -38). But what is the value of these commitments, acknowledgements and pledges if the implementation remains voluntary, without a vision, strategy and agreement of sanctions in case of non-compliance?

On the positive side, it is to be highlighted that the so-called plans for actions include also descriptions of means of implementation. They do no substitute a strategy. However, the goals, commitments and means of implementation allow in principle to add a vision, i.e. a narrative of our common future, and to develop quantifiable objectives, tactics and success measures for goal achievement with the resources available. Thus, there is a chance to overcome existing deficits.

Climate change, COVID-19 and related economic and social challenges are likely to increase pressure on the UN to review and update own agendas. And as long as the vision and strategy of current agendas are not compelling they are vulnerable. First initiatives have been launched already. For instance, the Doha Forum, in partnership with the Stimson Center’s Just Security 2020 program, released on 30 Nov 2020 its new report: Coping with New and Old Crises: Global and Regional Cooperation in an Age of Epidemic Uncertainty. The report’s analysis and ideas aim to spur greater, and more open, discussion and debate on the role that global governance institutions and novel, public-private partnerships can have in seeking a recovery from the pandemic that is broad-based and durable, equitable, and green. The report is not on how to achieve the Agenda 2030 after the pandemic. Instead, it proposes a new roadmap 2023 with a focus on four newly formulated thematic clusters. Highlight for institutional revitalization is a UN-linked new G20+. (2)


(2) Doha Report https://lnkd.in/dYC8C-M - accessed n 18 February 2021


It's not clear what's the strategy behind the Report and how influential the Doha Report and other initiatives will be. It will depend among others on pandemic and political developments in upcoming months. However, a review, update and even a substantial dismantling of the current agendas is possible in coping with new and old crises. And since decision making in context of the UN can be very slow or even blocked there is also the option that no real decision is taken and officially nothing changes. But since the 2030 Agenda is already off track now review could mean its slow death. 

The positive effect of a challenge of the 2030 Agenda would be that the tabling of alternative proposals will generate strategic choices.


For those who invested since 2015 in the implementation of the 2030 Agenda and NUA this is a chance to improve the framework of agenda implementation. In this context, it certainly will be helpful if they make up their case, add a compelling narrative and strategy. All stakeholders could win if the expected dialogue in the coming months would generate a vision, strategy and reliable commitments.

 

In preparation of this process it also may be helpful if supporters of the 2030 Agenda could better carve out the estimated and other anticipated gains of agenda implementation.

To give an example: National Urban Policies (NUP) and UN-Habitat’s Guidelines of Urban and Territorial Planning (IG-UTP) are already mentioned in the NUA. They aim at better cross sector and multi-level policy coordination to make the best use of limited sources in cities and territories. In principle such means of implementation can be of benefit for the entire 2030 Agenda and in response to COVID-19 and other crises. Better cross sector and multi-level coordination is at the heart of the interrelated web of SDGs. UN-Habitat is offering them on there service list and is ready to do depending of funds available.


The question is: Are such means of implementation really just some tools among many others and one shouldn't bother too much. Or, are these tools raw diamonds with the potential to boost the entire agenda implementation? I cannot give a final answer because nobody is doing a stress test. And without a stress test the real value remains unknown. Imagine, the UN has developped thousands of studies and hundreds of tools. I wonder how many are just sitting on some shelf because they never were assessed from a strategic point of view. The interns, short term staff and consultants who did the bulk work may have left the institution since long with their institutional memory and the managers still in charge are flooded with emerging and ongoing tasks, faced with budget challenges, high staff turnover and since one year also by the pandemic and lockdown. I understand that the Secretary General comes to very drastic descriptions of the situation (see my blog post on the Importance of Vision of 18 February 2021). However, the good thing is that the UN with its staff has still a pretty good institutional memory, shelves full of studies and tools, and with its country and project offices the UN is present throughout the world. It's time to become more strategic, count the assets and demonstrate to the world the UN's strategic value.


For the above mentioned means of implementation this requred that they should be assessed and offert as a stratgic choice. Listed on shopping lists (often called toolbox etc) they are no real strategic choices because the potential cot and benefits of their implementation are not yet well analysed and estimated. Yes, decision makers e.g. from national or local governments like project shopping lists to pick from and they tend to take offers backed by donor funding. This is the way much of traditional development cooperation works. A more modern approach would be that the UN and other international organizations (being aware of the potential value of their tools and services) explain to member states and other partners what's potentially in it if they use the tools, approaches and services. For instance, how much more effective and efficient a government could deliver services if they would follow principles of integrated and multi-level planning. This would give them an idea on cost and benefits and on the own commitment they would have to make. Yes, and only now they would have a strategic choice.

 

Now look again at the many 'We commit' phrases in the 2030 Agenda and NUA and imagine member states would reconfirm them based on a strategy with strategic choices. It might generate a much more realistic but not necessarily less ambitious agenda. It's just that the vision, strategy and related strategic choices would make commitments easier.



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If you have any questions, comments or a request for advisory services please contact Ulrich Graute via ulrich.graute@ugraute.de

 

All posts on the subject Failure to plan is planning to fail will be available on the blog “With burning patience”: https://www.ugraute.de/blog-1


Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions

by Ulrich Graute 14 April 2025
None of the following supports the idea that urban sprawl is required or even helpful to build sustainable cities. However, it is argued that it may be part of the solution for the crisis of affordable housing in many countries of the world. With this post, I would like to encourage a debate, eg, at the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress #WPC61 on 1-4 December 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In 1976 and alarmed by rapid and uncontrolled urban growth, particularly in the developing world, the UN General Assembly called for the First United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat I) addressing the challenges and future of human settlements. Housing remained at the focus of the United Nations Human Settlement Programme UN-Habitat ever since, and this was reconfirmed at Habitat III in Quito 2016. The New Urban Agenda recognizes and promotes a "right to the city," meaning the right of all inhabitants to have equal access to the benefits and opportunities that cities offer. It emphasizes a vision where urban spaces are designed and used collectively for the benefit of all, including those in informal settlements. Yes a vision, but overall, the Agenda is not very strategic and invites more to raising picking instead of integrated problem solving. Meanwhile, cities keep struggling to cope with fast urbanization, migration and growing demand for larger apartments. Urban sprawl is criticized since the 1950s and 60s because of its large demand for land. No densely populated urban areas have higher costs for the water, energy and transportation grid. In addition, developers often focus on profitable housing development while they don’t care for urban infrastructure, public spaces, schools etc. The New Urban Agenda promotes urban density as a key strategy for sustainable and efficient urban development but that doesn’t help those who a looking for housing now. Conor Dougherty is the author of the book Golden Gates: The Housing Crisis and a Reckoning for the American Dream published on 10 April 2025 in the New York Times the article “Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it.” He doesn’t make any effort to paint urban sprawl in rosy colors. Instead, he describes how eg in Princeton, Texas, the nation’s third-fastest-growing city, infrastructure has struggled to keep up with growth. He analyzes how difficult and slow-moving densification efforts in cities are and states, “Even if all the regulatory restraints were removed tomorrow, developers couldn’t find enough land to satisfy America’s housing needs inside established areas. Consequently, much of the nation’s housing growth has moved to states in the South and Southwest, where a surplus of open land and willingness to sprawl has turned the Sun Belt into a kind of national sponge that sops up housing demand from higher-cost cities. The largest metro areas there have about 20 percent of the nation’s population, but over the past five years they have built 42 percent of the nation’s new single-family homes, according to a recent report by Cullum Clark, an economist at the George W. Bush Institute, a research center in Dallas.” For instance, Celina, Texas (picture), has 54,000 residents, compared with 8,000 just a decade ago, and the population is projected to hit 110,000 by 2030. The lack of urbane infrastructure, employment, greenery, and community is striking, but people keep coming because of affordability. While planners and others prefer denser and walkable neighbourhoods like 15-minute-cities, the money to build related infrastructure in addition to houses is often missing or would reduce affordability. A dilemma. There are good reasons to criticize the trend described for the US by Conor Dougherty, but it provides a chance to attain affordable housing for people who cannot find it elsewhere. And the history of these satellite towns has demonstrated that the missing infrastructure, employment and community can be added lateron. It seems, urban sprawl is not the solution, but it might be part of the solution, isn’t it? Let's discuss this here or later on other occasions, like eg the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress 'Cities & Regions in Action: Planning Pathways to Resilience and Quality of Life 1-4 December 2025, in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia #WPC61. Reference: Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it. By Conor Dougherty. The New York Times, April 10, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/magazine/suburban-sprawl-texas.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
by Ulrich Graute 8 March 2025
Picture: UN photo
by Ulrich Graute 25 February 2025
Click to see the map in the full scale or download map in pdf format here https://anatomyof.ai/img/ai-anatomy-map.pdf.
by Ulrich Graute 22 February 2025
About the challenge of providing advice on governance and development in times of disruption and transition (English with German captatio ns) Deutsch: Ulrich spricht darüber, wie es ist, in Zeiten von Umbruch, Wandel und vielfachen Krisen als erfahrener Berater zu arbeiten. Obwohl die Situation nicht einfach ist, kann man daraus auch Chancen für effizientere Institutionen und Unternehmen sehen. Erfahrung und Flexibilität sind dabei wichtig, um neue Wege zu finden. English: Ulrich talks about working as an experienced consultant in times of upheaval, change, and multiple crises. Although the situation is not easy, we can also see opportunities for more efficient institutions and companies. Experience and flexibility are important to find new pathways.
by Ulrich Graute 12 February 2025
"The development of highly capable AI is likely to be the biggest event in human history. The world must act decisively to ensure it is not the last event in human history. This conference, and the cooperative spirit of the AI Summit series, give me hope; but we must turn hope into action, soon, if there is to be a future we would want our children to live in." Professor Stuart Russell, IASEAI President and Distinguished Professor of Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley Please join me on 13 February 2025 at ARCS 9.0 for my keynote on 'Urban politics, planning, and economy in the Global South in times of fast developing AI' The two weeks before my conference presentation were full of dynamics in the field of AI, its politics, and development. First came the launch of the 500 billion US$ Stargate Project in the USA, followed by the launch of the Chinese open-source large language model (LLM) DeepSeek. On 6 February the International Association for Safe & Ethical AI held its inaugural conference in Paris, France. Prominent AI scientists including Stuart Russel and the 2024 Physics Nobel Laureate Geoffrey Hinton called for international cooperation to ensure safe and ethical artificial intelligence. On 10 and 11 February 2025, France co-chaired by India hosted the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit in Paris. The speeches by Heads of State and Government including the President of France, the Prime Minister of India, the President of the EU Commission, and the US Vice President gave the impression of how different countries of the world try to position themselves in a race for AI leadership. Urban politics, planning, and economy, not only in the Global South, need longer-term frameworks. How should digital transformation and urban planning be approached in cities facing multiple crises and the new wave of AI technological innovation? The latter is according to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others unprecedented in scale and speed but it is expected to affect all spheres of life. ARCS 9.0 schedule and Zoom link for Inaugural, plenaries and Valedictory. Date - 13th Feb to 15th Feb 2025 Join Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/95336599575?pwd=NExxgf8gBoubEfKRhhtbalM1ZYjQph.1 Meeting ID: 953 3659 9575
by Ulrich Graute 22 January 2025
Source of the picture OpenAI: https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/
by Ulrich Graute 1 January 2025
It was a tremendous privilege in my life to meet Rosalynn and Jimmy Carter for the first time in 1984 (picture) and then again in the summer of 1985 during my internship at Koinonia Farm near Americus, Georgia (USA). Jimmy Carter, who served as the 39th president of the U.S. from 1977 to 1981, died on December 29, 2024, at his home in Plains, Ga. Jimmy Carter was a lifelong farmer who worked with his hands building houses for the poor well into his 90s. I didn't agree with him on all issues (the early 1980s were the time of a new US missile deployment in Germany ordered by Jimmy Carter and a large peace movement against it) but he took the time to discuss it with me and others at Koinonia Farm. That alone was amazing. Even more mind-blowing was that he continued hands-on work on peacebuilding and house renovation for the poor around the world with Habitat for Humanity International well into his 90s. If in my career providing hands-on support became more important than climbing my own career path, this was also due to the example Jimmy Carter gave in the decades after his Presidency. I learned a lot from him about working for peace with humbleness, love, and perseverance. Read more in the New York Times about why Jimmy Carter was known as much for his charity and diplomatic work later in life as he was for his single presidential term, which ended in 1981. https://lnkd.in/d9qxSmTM *. *. *. *. * Note: This post was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graute_learning-to-work-hands-on-for-peace-from-activity-7279396908270309376-BBjV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
by Ulrich Graute 2 December 2024
In 2024, for the first time since 2000, the Parties to the United Nations Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate change, and desertification faced a very busy 3 months, moving from large Conferences of Parties (COP) in Cali (Colombia) for biodiversity in October to Baku (Azerbaijan) for climate in November to Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) for desertification in December. On top of this Triple-COP, there was the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development and the UN Summit of the Future in September in New York (USA) while UN-Habitat held its World Urban Forum in Cairo (Egypt), and let’s not forget the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5) which ended last weekend in Busan, South Korea. No real breakthroughs were reported but I noticed many promises to double future efforts. There is a lot that can be critically reviewed about the events, eg what’s the purpose of moving approximately 100.000+ delegates, UN staffers, and other participants worldwide if the necessary political will to agree and resources available are insufficient and the outcomes are limited accordingly? But such a critique would be a bit unfair since I don’t know how many new ideas and initiatives were born during those official meetings, side events, and informal chats that might bloom up in upcoming years despite of the multicrises we’re living in. What needs to be criticized is that the UN System is not progressing on its task to implement its many mandates more “synergistically” by targeting policies, programs, and initiatives to jointly address the goals of the Rio Conventions, SDGs, etc. Instead, the conferences referred to each other but worked mainly within their silos. This is not appropriate in a world full of interrelations and interdepensies. Well, no individual or group can follow up on every aspect, and swarm intelligence of conferences with thousands of participants each seems to be no functioning alternative. But what else could be done? To give an example: How about building an AI-based Large Language Model (LLM) trained with the UN Charter, all UN declarations, national and subnational resolutions, regulations, and programmes? AI Agents for the different conventions and agendas should then be asked to coordinate and propose “synergistic” proposals across policy levels. Of course, the use of artificial intelligence should be wisely supervised by a team of AI experts and professionals from all affected fields. I wouldn’t expect AI applications to solve all problems but to better inform decision-makers and UN agencies on integrated scenarios. This could help to increase efficiency, avoid duplicating efforts, and increase the overall problem-solving capacity of the UN. I would be happy to support such work with my governance and development experience across all policy levels. Picture source: https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/cop-nature-climate-adaptation-mitigation
by Ulrich Graute 14 November 2024
Since the first climate COP in 1995, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency has been representing local and regional governments at the processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The LGMA also represents ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners and Global Taskforce of Local and Regional Governments. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability acts as the Focal Point of LGMA. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point, recognizing the essential role of these governments in enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions NDSs and driving transformative climate action. The LGMA is atively present in Baku with a robust agenda, numerous partners, and an esteemed delegation of political leaders representing local and subnational governments. At the center of the presence is the Multilevel Action & Urbanization Pavilion as the global stage for the city and region climate agenda during COP29. The Pavilion brings into focus not only the challenges and needs, but also the accomplishments and commitments of local and subnational actors on climate action. The Pavilion is open from 12 to 22 November in the Blue Zone, Area E, Pavilion I15. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the High-Level Opening on 12 November at 10:00 AM. Please find the agenda of LGMA attached. Please visit also the Youtube channel of ICLEI Global for daily updates https://lnkd.in/dddDCKtA Ulrich Graute - ISOCARP Online Delegate at COP29 and Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee
by Ulrich Graute 19 October 2024
Report on the Urban Conversation on Ethical Use of AI in Urban Planning at the 60th World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy on 11 OCTOBER 2024
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