The hesitation of so many decision-makers to support more ambitious measure to limit global warming to 1,5 C and to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development goals may have two simple reasons: fear of the unknown and unpreparedness for the long and unsecured passage towards climate resilience and sustainability.
In my recent work including a series of block posts on Sustainable Germany (www.urgaute.de/blog-1) and a presentation at the American Planning Association (APA) on 8 November 2021 I analysed the readiness of Germany for the ‘total transformation of the way we live and work, the way we produce energy and approach mobility’ as Germany’s Acting Chancellor Angela Merkel called for at COP26 in Glasgow on 1 November 2021.
While further research is needed to reveal the full truth there are clear indications for this:
- The challenge to achieve the climate is not technical because most experts say it is still doable
- Instead, the main obstacles are the fear of the unknown and the lack of preparedness.
In this post I summarize main arguments of my presentation at American Planning Association.
The goals agreed in 2015 and enshrined in the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development have all a very positive notion. They aim at improving the life for all and assuring that the same quality of life will be available for future generations. The achieved goals would be a win-win for everybody. But if experts say that the goals are achievable there must be something else which keeps planners, politicians and citizens from stepping up their activities.
If Angela Merkel is so strongly in favour of a total transformation why hasn’t she done more for it in the past? Let’s recall that she chaired already COP1 in 1995 as German Minister for the Environment. Looking for reasons there are two search directions: On the one hand a rich and highly industrialized country like Germany has a lot to loose and the government of Germany is committed to prevent any damage from the German people. On the other hand there is the unknown territory or unknown open see between our situation today and a climate resilient and sustainable life. Most politicians, planning experts and citizens are not used to faced such large scale and dynamic challenges and are thus not experienced in doing so. We learnt during the Corona pandemic how difficult it is for politicians to foresee dynamic developments and to always take the right decision to fight COVID-19. It can be expected that it will be even more difficult to lead the people of a country or the entire world through the transition period where all our lifelines have to be switched from fossil sources to renewable sources of energy. And this is only one of the big challenges and these challenges are expected to develop in a dynamic way in relation to interrelations and other emerging issues. Who will guarantee that commitments once made will be reliable throughout the entire process? And will there be enough mechanisms to prevent and mitigate hardships of those who will be temporarily losers of the transition process? These and more questions seem to have prevented an open discussion and positioning of politicians during the last election campaign. Climate change was the elephant in the room but no party presented an action plan to achieve the 1,5 C goal. Such a plan was not considered as helpful to win the elections.
The third argument is neither pleasant for politicians nor for experts and citizens: we are all not prepared for a total transformation.
To give one example: In Germany, the National Climate Initiative alone carried out 35.900 climate projects since 2008. However, Burkhard Jung, Lord Mayor of Leipzig and President of the Association of German Cities asks for more support for cities. And the German Association of Industries revealed in its report Climate Paths 2.0 – A Program for Climate and Germany's Future Development that currently the energy-efficient building renovation rate is at 2,1 % only. That not only means that more than 97 % are still to be renovated or substituted but that for this we need building materials, trained construction crews and planners to prepare and implement projects.
And the latter point is where the currently on-going negotiations for a new coalition government are trapped. As the Berlin daily newspaper Der Tagespiegel wrote on its front page on 6 November the Social democratic, Green and Liberal parties are trapped. Speeding up climate policy implementation requires preparatory work not done by the last government:
In Germany, especially the Green Party is under pressure to deliver more for climate resilience but tasks ignored by former governments are likely to remain as a burden for the new one. Catching up may take time and resources. In addition the piecemeal approach of thousands of uncoordinated projects didn't generate the progress hoped for. Therefore it seems to be time for more robust and result based strategies for goal achievement.
Leaning on Angela Merkel’s call from Glasgow “What we need is a total transformation of the way we live and work, the way we produce energy and approach mobility” I finished my APA presentation with the following conclusions.
To overcome the fear of the unknown path and to embark on a total transformation it needs robust strategies including these components:
- A confidence booster to overcome the fear of the unknown
- An enabling environment for large scale transformation
- Accountable leadership at all policy levels
- Scaling up of projects into result based programmes covering all cities and territories
- Mixed set of financing instruments
- Socio-economic mechanisms to cover (multi annual) hardships of individuals or entire cities and territories
- International solidarity to leave no country, city and individual behind
- Capacity building at an unprecedented scale to provide technical and administrative support for necessary
large scale programmes
- Review and accountability mechanism
I am happy to discuss and further elaborate my thesis.