Social Scienes: Where Crises are Man Made it Needs More Research on Politics, Governance and Management

Ulrich Graute • 1 February 2021
Path dependency in research policy may keep us from asking the right questions

When there is a crisis governments and many people love to look for solutions based on research in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and then they throw money at the implementation of solutions. Often this is the right thing to be done. No surprise, studying and doing research in STEM today often has a higher reputation than studies in the Humanities and Social Sciences. And also no surprise, there is no Nobel Prize in Political Science, History, Sociology, Cultural Studies, Urban and Territorial Planning. What's the problem with this path?

Many crises of our times are caused - in part or in total - due to human impacts. So, shouldn't we invest more in research on the human impacts when we search for solutions? If we stick to that well established path disregarding the Humanities and Social Sciences in comparison to STEM we may generate as the wrong question on man made crises and disasters and prevent ourselves from solving root causes of the man made crises and disasters.


This post has no intention to question STEM research and studies but it raises the question if enough is done in other academic fields. STEM research won't tell us how governance and management should look like after the Corona pandemic? Do we need new and reformed political systems, governance and management mechanisms or is the key to the future just another 'technological revolution'?


This post begins by taking some inspiration from leading thinkers of our time. This shall demonstrate that even leading thinkers and social science struggle a lot to help answering the above questions and that it is still a long way to a better understanding of the world and how we should approach it. Afterwards the post turns to discuss a few pragmatic and down to earth conclusions. At the end the post warns again that the path dependency of contemporary research and development may generate a lot of important technological knowledge and tools. However, it may impact negatively the chances of building back better after the Corona pandemic and other crises.




Technical solutions may be well intended but combined without contextual thinking makes them dysfunctional
Walls, metal barriers and road signs can have useful functions in cities. However, the road sign on the picture required a hole in the wall. The road sign is now only partly visible. In addition, it is placed between the sidewalk with a brand new metal barrier on the side of the wall and not along the street. Now the barrier, the hole in the wall and the road sign don't make traffic any safer but help anybody who wants to climb the wall.                       (Picture: U. Graute)


Francis Fukuyama and Jürgen Habermas: What was the normal prior to the pandemic?


The Cold War framed the normal in the decades after World War II. This time was marked by the ideological battles between, on the one side, socialists and their aiming at the "dictatorship of the proletariat" and, on the other side, the democratic systems with their various degrees of "free" and "social" market economy which tried to grow up to its promise of "freedom for all". That ideological battle came to an end in the 1980s with the Chinese economic reform towards a "socialist market economy", the Perestroika in the Soviet Union, the fall of the Iron Curtain. It seemed as if democracy and market economy were the winners but ...not so fast.

In reality, there was no common understanding of a new normal. For instance, the famous American political scientist Francis Fukuyama wrote that humanity has reached "not just ... the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: That is, the end-point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government." According to him we would be now (i.e. in 2021) 30 years after the end of history. Oh boy! Instead, the German philosopher Jürgen Habermas was more concerned about the new confusing complexity (neue Unübersichtlichkeit) and an utopian energy exhaustion (Erschöpfung utopischer Energie). While the big ideological divide had faded away there was a lot insecurity about the future path of development.


Arundhati Roy: The pandemic as a portal


The pandemic came on us a year ago in early 2020. Many of us still sit at home and in their home offices. Many are bored at the same time depressed by the lockdown and wonder with burning patience what comes after the pandemic. Will there be other crises and can we strengthen the resilience of our societies and world? On 3 April 2020, the Indian novelist Arundhati Roy published in the Financial Times an article titled 'The pandemic is a portal' :

"Whatever it is, coronavirus has made the mighty kneel and brought the world to a halt like nothing else could. Our minds are still racing back and forth, longing for a return to “normality”, trying to stitch our future to our past and refusing to acknowledge the rupture. But the rupture exists. And in the midst of this terrible despair, it offers us a chance to rethink the doomsday machine we have built for ourselves. Nothing could be worse than a return to normality.


Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next.


We can choose to walk through it, dragging the carcasses of our prejudice and hatred, our avarice, our data banks and dead ideas, our dead rivers and smoky skies behind us. Or we can walk through lightly, with little luggage, ready to imagine another world. And ready to fight for it."


Normality after the crises: the risk of mistakes caused by path dependency

The above selection of arguments is selective and not representative. However, it inspires the following reflections:


  • When Arundhati Roy and others argue against a return to the normality before Corona they should consider that the pre-corona normality was already marked by vibrant discussions and the search for better governance and management of the world, its cities and territories. However, her appeal that there should be no return to that time where we didn't have the solutions in anyway remains valid.


  • The examples of Fukuyama, Habermas and Roy underscore the struggles even leading thinkers in the humanities and social science have in understanding the often confusing complexity and interrelation of our times. But it is dangerous to turn away from their questions. Instead, the search for answer should be boosted.


  • Arundhati Roy suggests to imagine another world and to be ready to fight for it. That is complementary to Habermas who complained already in the 1980s about a utopian energy exhaustion. Habermas argues more as the heavy thinker while Roy suggests to "walk through lightly, with little luggage". If so different persons express that we do not think enough about the frameworks for the future we should consider doing that.


It is interesting, if in these days a virologist expresses the need to intensify research on viruses and the development of vaccines it is likely that governments and pharmaceutics companies throw money after the virologist and urge the boost of research. There is a general tendency in the world to prioritize science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Instead, nothing similar happens when academic studies of the humanities and social sciences struggle explaining why institutions and individuals fail to better cooperate, govern and manage the world, its countries, cities and territories. Instead, investments in the humanities and social science may be even cut. This preference of STEM compared to social sciences generated a path dependence.


In the current situation but even before the pandemic there were many calls for a digital revolution and the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Certainly, there are good arguments to further develop and make better use of information technologies including AI. However, we also may be speeding here our march into the trap of path dependence and neglect research and development of human behaviour and governance for a more sustainable and resilient world.


Path dependence is when the decisions presented to people are dependent on previous decisions or experiences made in the past. For instance, path dependence exists when a feature of the economy is not based on current conditions, but rather has been formed by a sequence of past actions each leading to a distinct outcome. (source: Wikipedia, accessed on 29 January 2021)


The Campaign for Social Science in Great Britain


In the United Kingdom, the Academy of Social Sciences (www.acss.org.uk) - of which I am a Fellow - launched a Campaign for Social Science (campaignforsocialscience.org.uk) as the outward-facing, advocacy voice of the Academy. The Campaign currently works in particular to amplify the voice of social sciences in policy issues affecting all social science disciplines and Higher Education Institutes across the United Kingdom. Campaign activities focus on evidence-led briefings and reports, events and promoting social sciences in the media. The Campaign advocates to inform and influence public policy with social science evidence and promote the benefits of investment in social science education, research and infrastructure. The Campaign is supported by a coalition of universities, learned societies, charities and publishers. In response to COVID-19 the Campaign established a hub showcasing some leading examples of research, think-pieces and policy analysis across the full spectrum of the social sciences which contribute to understanding and tackling the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on society and economy.


While Great Britain is trying to change the trajectory and put a stronger focus on the Humanities and Social Science to increase the problem solving capacity other countries still following the old path. The big crisis of our times including climate change, pollution, lack of sustainability, the pandemic and conflicts around the world all are either man made or are caused by a strong human impact. How can we just sit and wait for a new vaccine, software, app or AI application if we humans are at least part of the problem? Therefore, we have to become aware of the path dependence of research and development policy, revise and pay more attention to problem solving through the Humanities and Social Sciences.


Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions

by Ulrich Graute 14 April 2025
None of the following supports the idea that urban sprawl is required or even helpful to build sustainable cities. However, it is argued that it may be part of the solution for the crisis of affordable housing in many countries of the world. With this post, I would like to encourage a debate, eg, at the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress #WPC61 on 1-4 December 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In 1976 and alarmed by rapid and uncontrolled urban growth, particularly in the developing world, the UN General Assembly called for the First United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat I) addressing the challenges and future of human settlements. Housing remained at the focus of the United Nations Human Settlement Programme UN-Habitat ever since, and this was reconfirmed at Habitat III in Quito 2016. The New Urban Agenda recognizes and promotes a "right to the city," meaning the right of all inhabitants to have equal access to the benefits and opportunities that cities offer. It emphasizes a vision where urban spaces are designed and used collectively for the benefit of all, including those in informal settlements. Yes a vision, but overall, the Agenda is not very strategic and invites more to raising picking instead of integrated problem solving. Meanwhile, cities keep struggling to cope with fast urbanization, migration and growing demand for larger apartments. Urban sprawl is criticized since the 1950s and 60s because of its large demand for land. No densely populated urban areas have higher costs for the water, energy and transportation grid. In addition, developers often focus on profitable housing development while they don’t care for urban infrastructure, public spaces, schools etc. The New Urban Agenda promotes urban density as a key strategy for sustainable and efficient urban development but that doesn’t help those who a looking for housing now. Conor Dougherty is the author of the book Golden Gates: The Housing Crisis and a Reckoning for the American Dream published on 10 April 2025 in the New York Times the article “Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it.” He doesn’t make any effort to paint urban sprawl in rosy colors. Instead, he describes how eg in Princeton, Texas, the nation’s third-fastest-growing city, infrastructure has struggled to keep up with growth. He analyzes how difficult and slow-moving densification efforts in cities are and states, “Even if all the regulatory restraints were removed tomorrow, developers couldn’t find enough land to satisfy America’s housing needs inside established areas. Consequently, much of the nation’s housing growth has moved to states in the South and Southwest, where a surplus of open land and willingness to sprawl has turned the Sun Belt into a kind of national sponge that sops up housing demand from higher-cost cities. The largest metro areas there have about 20 percent of the nation’s population, but over the past five years they have built 42 percent of the nation’s new single-family homes, according to a recent report by Cullum Clark, an economist at the George W. Bush Institute, a research center in Dallas.” For instance, Celina, Texas (picture), has 54,000 residents, compared with 8,000 just a decade ago, and the population is projected to hit 110,000 by 2030. The lack of urbane infrastructure, employment, greenery, and community is striking, but people keep coming because of affordability. While planners and others prefer denser and walkable neighbourhoods like 15-minute-cities, the money to build related infrastructure in addition to houses is often missing or would reduce affordability. A dilemma. There are good reasons to criticize the trend described for the US by Conor Dougherty, but it provides a chance to attain affordable housing for people who cannot find it elsewhere. And the history of these satellite towns has demonstrated that the missing infrastructure, employment and community can be added lateron. It seems, urban sprawl is not the solution, but it might be part of the solution, isn’t it? Let's discuss this here or later on other occasions, like eg the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress 'Cities & Regions in Action: Planning Pathways to Resilience and Quality of Life 1-4 December 2025, in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia #WPC61. Reference: Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it. By Conor Dougherty. The New York Times, April 10, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/magazine/suburban-sprawl-texas.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
by Ulrich Graute 8 March 2025
Picture: UN photo
by Ulrich Graute 25 February 2025
Click to see the map in the full scale or download map in pdf format here https://anatomyof.ai/img/ai-anatomy-map.pdf.
by Ulrich Graute 22 February 2025
About the challenge of providing advice on governance and development in times of disruption and transition (English with German captatio ns) Deutsch: Ulrich spricht darüber, wie es ist, in Zeiten von Umbruch, Wandel und vielfachen Krisen als erfahrener Berater zu arbeiten. Obwohl die Situation nicht einfach ist, kann man daraus auch Chancen für effizientere Institutionen und Unternehmen sehen. Erfahrung und Flexibilität sind dabei wichtig, um neue Wege zu finden. English: Ulrich talks about working as an experienced consultant in times of upheaval, change, and multiple crises. Although the situation is not easy, we can also see opportunities for more efficient institutions and companies. Experience and flexibility are important to find new pathways.
by Ulrich Graute 12 February 2025
"The development of highly capable AI is likely to be the biggest event in human history. The world must act decisively to ensure it is not the last event in human history. This conference, and the cooperative spirit of the AI Summit series, give me hope; but we must turn hope into action, soon, if there is to be a future we would want our children to live in." Professor Stuart Russell, IASEAI President and Distinguished Professor of Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley Please join me on 13 February 2025 at ARCS 9.0 for my keynote on 'Urban politics, planning, and economy in the Global South in times of fast developing AI' The two weeks before my conference presentation were full of dynamics in the field of AI, its politics, and development. First came the launch of the 500 billion US$ Stargate Project in the USA, followed by the launch of the Chinese open-source large language model (LLM) DeepSeek. On 6 February the International Association for Safe & Ethical AI held its inaugural conference in Paris, France. Prominent AI scientists including Stuart Russel and the 2024 Physics Nobel Laureate Geoffrey Hinton called for international cooperation to ensure safe and ethical artificial intelligence. On 10 and 11 February 2025, France co-chaired by India hosted the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit in Paris. The speeches by Heads of State and Government including the President of France, the Prime Minister of India, the President of the EU Commission, and the US Vice President gave the impression of how different countries of the world try to position themselves in a race for AI leadership. Urban politics, planning, and economy, not only in the Global South, need longer-term frameworks. How should digital transformation and urban planning be approached in cities facing multiple crises and the new wave of AI technological innovation? The latter is according to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others unprecedented in scale and speed but it is expected to affect all spheres of life. ARCS 9.0 schedule and Zoom link for Inaugural, plenaries and Valedictory. Date - 13th Feb to 15th Feb 2025 Join Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/95336599575?pwd=NExxgf8gBoubEfKRhhtbalM1ZYjQph.1 Meeting ID: 953 3659 9575
by Ulrich Graute 22 January 2025
Source of the picture OpenAI: https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/
by Ulrich Graute 1 January 2025
It was a tremendous privilege in my life to meet Rosalynn and Jimmy Carter for the first time in 1984 (picture) and then again in the summer of 1985 during my internship at Koinonia Farm near Americus, Georgia (USA). Jimmy Carter, who served as the 39th president of the U.S. from 1977 to 1981, died on December 29, 2024, at his home in Plains, Ga. Jimmy Carter was a lifelong farmer who worked with his hands building houses for the poor well into his 90s. I didn't agree with him on all issues (the early 1980s were the time of a new US missile deployment in Germany ordered by Jimmy Carter and a large peace movement against it) but he took the time to discuss it with me and others at Koinonia Farm. That alone was amazing. Even more mind-blowing was that he continued hands-on work on peacebuilding and house renovation for the poor around the world with Habitat for Humanity International well into his 90s. If in my career providing hands-on support became more important than climbing my own career path, this was also due to the example Jimmy Carter gave in the decades after his Presidency. I learned a lot from him about working for peace with humbleness, love, and perseverance. Read more in the New York Times about why Jimmy Carter was known as much for his charity and diplomatic work later in life as he was for his single presidential term, which ended in 1981. https://lnkd.in/d9qxSmTM *. *. *. *. * Note: This post was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graute_learning-to-work-hands-on-for-peace-from-activity-7279396908270309376-BBjV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
by Ulrich Graute 2 December 2024
In 2024, for the first time since 2000, the Parties to the United Nations Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate change, and desertification faced a very busy 3 months, moving from large Conferences of Parties (COP) in Cali (Colombia) for biodiversity in October to Baku (Azerbaijan) for climate in November to Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) for desertification in December. On top of this Triple-COP, there was the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development and the UN Summit of the Future in September in New York (USA) while UN-Habitat held its World Urban Forum in Cairo (Egypt), and let’s not forget the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5) which ended last weekend in Busan, South Korea. No real breakthroughs were reported but I noticed many promises to double future efforts. There is a lot that can be critically reviewed about the events, eg what’s the purpose of moving approximately 100.000+ delegates, UN staffers, and other participants worldwide if the necessary political will to agree and resources available are insufficient and the outcomes are limited accordingly? But such a critique would be a bit unfair since I don’t know how many new ideas and initiatives were born during those official meetings, side events, and informal chats that might bloom up in upcoming years despite of the multicrises we’re living in. What needs to be criticized is that the UN System is not progressing on its task to implement its many mandates more “synergistically” by targeting policies, programs, and initiatives to jointly address the goals of the Rio Conventions, SDGs, etc. Instead, the conferences referred to each other but worked mainly within their silos. This is not appropriate in a world full of interrelations and interdepensies. Well, no individual or group can follow up on every aspect, and swarm intelligence of conferences with thousands of participants each seems to be no functioning alternative. But what else could be done? To give an example: How about building an AI-based Large Language Model (LLM) trained with the UN Charter, all UN declarations, national and subnational resolutions, regulations, and programmes? AI Agents for the different conventions and agendas should then be asked to coordinate and propose “synergistic” proposals across policy levels. Of course, the use of artificial intelligence should be wisely supervised by a team of AI experts and professionals from all affected fields. I wouldn’t expect AI applications to solve all problems but to better inform decision-makers and UN agencies on integrated scenarios. This could help to increase efficiency, avoid duplicating efforts, and increase the overall problem-solving capacity of the UN. I would be happy to support such work with my governance and development experience across all policy levels. Picture source: https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/cop-nature-climate-adaptation-mitigation
by Ulrich Graute 14 November 2024
Since the first climate COP in 1995, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency has been representing local and regional governments at the processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The LGMA also represents ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners and Global Taskforce of Local and Regional Governments. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability acts as the Focal Point of LGMA. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point, recognizing the essential role of these governments in enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions NDSs and driving transformative climate action. The LGMA is atively present in Baku with a robust agenda, numerous partners, and an esteemed delegation of political leaders representing local and subnational governments. At the center of the presence is the Multilevel Action & Urbanization Pavilion as the global stage for the city and region climate agenda during COP29. The Pavilion brings into focus not only the challenges and needs, but also the accomplishments and commitments of local and subnational actors on climate action. The Pavilion is open from 12 to 22 November in the Blue Zone, Area E, Pavilion I15. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the High-Level Opening on 12 November at 10:00 AM. Please find the agenda of LGMA attached. Please visit also the Youtube channel of ICLEI Global for daily updates https://lnkd.in/dddDCKtA Ulrich Graute - ISOCARP Online Delegate at COP29 and Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee
by Ulrich Graute 19 October 2024
Report on the Urban Conversation on Ethical Use of AI in Urban Planning at the 60th World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy on 11 OCTOBER 2024
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