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Social Scienes: Where Crises are Man Made it Needs More Research on Politics, Governance and Management

Ulrich Graute • 1 February 2021
Path dependency in research policy may keep us from asking the right questions

When there is a crisis governments and many people love to look for solutions based on research in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and then they throw money at the implementation of solutions. Often this is the right thing to be done. No surprise, studying and doing research in STEM today often has a higher reputation than studies in the Humanities and Social Sciences. And also no surprise, there is no Nobel Prize in Political Science, History, Sociology, Cultural Studies, Urban and Territorial Planning. What's the problem with this path?

Many crises of our times are caused - in part or in total - due to human impacts. So, shouldn't we invest more in research on the human impacts when we search for solutions? If we stick to that well established path disregarding the Humanities and Social Sciences in comparison to STEM we may generate as the wrong question on man made crises and disasters and prevent ourselves from solving root causes of the man made crises and disasters.


This post has no intention to question STEM research and studies but it raises the question if enough is done in other academic fields. STEM research won't tell us how governance and management should look like after the Corona pandemic? Do we need new and reformed political systems, governance and management mechanisms or is the key to the future just another 'technological revolution'?


This post begins by taking some inspiration from leading thinkers of our time. This shall demonstrate that even leading thinkers and social science struggle a lot to help answering the above questions and that it is still a long way to a better understanding of the world and how we should approach it. Afterwards the post turns to discuss a few pragmatic and down to earth conclusions. At the end the post warns again that the path dependency of contemporary research and development may generate a lot of important technological knowledge and tools. However, it may impact negatively the chances of building back better after the Corona pandemic and other crises.




Technical solutions may be well intended but combined without contextual thinking makes them dysfunctional
Walls, metal barriers and road signs can have useful functions in cities. However, the road sign on the picture required a hole in the wall. The road sign is now only partly visible. In addition, it is placed between the sidewalk with a brand new metal barrier on the side of the wall and not along the street. Now the barrier, the hole in the wall and the road sign don't make traffic any safer but help anybody who wants to climb the wall.                       (Picture: U. Graute)


Francis Fukuyama and Jürgen Habermas: What was the normal prior to the pandemic?


The Cold War framed the normal in the decades after World War II. This time was marked by the ideological battles between, on the one side, socialists and their aiming at the "dictatorship of the proletariat" and, on the other side, the democratic systems with their various degrees of "free" and "social" market economy which tried to grow up to its promise of "freedom for all". That ideological battle came to an end in the 1980s with the Chinese economic reform towards a "socialist market economy", the Perestroika in the Soviet Union, the fall of the Iron Curtain. It seemed as if democracy and market economy were the winners but ...not so fast.

In reality, there was no common understanding of a new normal. For instance, the famous American political scientist Francis Fukuyama wrote that humanity has reached "not just ... the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: That is, the end-point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government." According to him we would be now (i.e. in 2021) 30 years after the end of history. Oh boy! Instead, the German philosopher Jürgen Habermas was more concerned about the new confusing complexity (neue Unübersichtlichkeit) and an utopian energy exhaustion (Erschöpfung utopischer Energie). While the big ideological divide had faded away there was a lot insecurity about the future path of development.


Arundhati Roy: The pandemic as a portal


The pandemic came on us a year ago in early 2020. Many of us still sit at home and in their home offices. Many are bored at the same time depressed by the lockdown and wonder with burning patience what comes after the pandemic. Will there be other crises and can we strengthen the resilience of our societies and world? On 3 April 2020, the Indian novelist Arundhati Roy published in the Financial Times an article titled 'The pandemic is a portal' :

"Whatever it is, coronavirus has made the mighty kneel and brought the world to a halt like nothing else could. Our minds are still racing back and forth, longing for a return to “normality”, trying to stitch our future to our past and refusing to acknowledge the rupture. But the rupture exists. And in the midst of this terrible despair, it offers us a chance to rethink the doomsday machine we have built for ourselves. Nothing could be worse than a return to normality.


Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break with the past and imagine their world anew. This one is no different. It is a portal, a gateway between one world and the next.


We can choose to walk through it, dragging the carcasses of our prejudice and hatred, our avarice, our data banks and dead ideas, our dead rivers and smoky skies behind us. Or we can walk through lightly, with little luggage, ready to imagine another world. And ready to fight for it."


Normality after the crises: the risk of mistakes caused by path dependency

The above selection of arguments is selective and not representative. However, it inspires the following reflections:


  • When Arundhati Roy and others argue against a return to the normality before Corona they should consider that the pre-corona normality was already marked by vibrant discussions and the search for better governance and management of the world, its cities and territories. However, her appeal that there should be no return to that time where we didn't have the solutions in anyway remains valid.


  • The examples of Fukuyama, Habermas and Roy underscore the struggles even leading thinkers in the humanities and social science have in understanding the often confusing complexity and interrelation of our times. But it is dangerous to turn away from their questions. Instead, the search for answer should be boosted.


  • Arundhati Roy suggests to imagine another world and to be ready to fight for it. That is complementary to Habermas who complained already in the 1980s about a utopian energy exhaustion. Habermas argues more as the heavy thinker while Roy suggests to "walk through lightly, with little luggage". If so different persons express that we do not think enough about the frameworks for the future we should consider doing that.


It is interesting, if in these days a virologist expresses the need to intensify research on viruses and the development of vaccines it is likely that governments and pharmaceutics companies throw money after the virologist and urge the boost of research. There is a general tendency in the world to prioritize science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Instead, nothing similar happens when academic studies of the humanities and social sciences struggle explaining why institutions and individuals fail to better cooperate, govern and manage the world, its countries, cities and territories. Instead, investments in the humanities and social science may be even cut. This preference of STEM compared to social sciences generated a path dependence.


In the current situation but even before the pandemic there were many calls for a digital revolution and the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Certainly, there are good arguments to further develop and make better use of information technologies including AI. However, we also may be speeding here our march into the trap of path dependence and neglect research and development of human behaviour and governance for a more sustainable and resilient world.


Path dependence is when the decisions presented to people are dependent on previous decisions or experiences made in the past. For instance, path dependence exists when a feature of the economy is not based on current conditions, but rather has been formed by a sequence of past actions each leading to a distinct outcome. (source: Wikipedia, accessed on 29 January 2021)


The Campaign for Social Science in Great Britain


In the United Kingdom, the Academy of Social Sciences (www.acss.org.uk) - of which I am a Fellow - launched a Campaign for Social Science (campaignforsocialscience.org.uk) as the outward-facing, advocacy voice of the Academy. The Campaign currently works in particular to amplify the voice of social sciences in policy issues affecting all social science disciplines and Higher Education Institutes across the United Kingdom. Campaign activities focus on evidence-led briefings and reports, events and promoting social sciences in the media. The Campaign advocates to inform and influence public policy with social science evidence and promote the benefits of investment in social science education, research and infrastructure. The Campaign is supported by a coalition of universities, learned societies, charities and publishers. In response to COVID-19 the Campaign established a hub showcasing some leading examples of research, think-pieces and policy analysis across the full spectrum of the social sciences which contribute to understanding and tackling the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on society and economy.


While Great Britain is trying to change the trajectory and put a stronger focus on the Humanities and Social Science to increase the problem solving capacity other countries still following the old path. The big crisis of our times including climate change, pollution, lack of sustainability, the pandemic and conflicts around the world all are either man made or are caused by a strong human impact. How can we just sit and wait for a new vaccine, software, app or AI application if we humans are at least part of the problem? Therefore, we have to become aware of the path dependence of research and development policy, revise and pay more attention to problem solving through the Humanities and Social Sciences.


Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions

by Ulrich Graute 1 January 2025
It was a tremendous privilege in my life to meet Rosalynn and Jimmy Carter for the first time in 1984 (picture) and then again in the summer of 1985 during my internship at Koinonia Farm near Americus, Georgia (USA). Jimmy Carter, who served as the 39th president of the U.S. from 1977 to 1981, died on December 29, 2024, at his home in Plains, Ga. Jimmy Carter was a lifelong farmer who worked with his hands building houses for the poor well into his 90s. I didn't agree with him on all issues (the early 1980s were the time of a new US missile deployment in Germany ordered by Jimmy Carter and a large peace movement against it) but he took the time to discuss it with me and others at Koinonia Farm. That alone was amazing. Even more mind-blowing was that he continued hands-on work on peacebuilding and house renovation for the poor around the world with Habitat for Humanity International well into his 90s. If in my career providing hands-on support became more important than climbing my own career path, this was also due to the example Jimmy Carter gave in the decades after his Presidency. I learned a lot from him about working for peace with humbleness, love, and perseverance. Read more in the New York Times about why Jimmy Carter was known as much for his charity and diplomatic work later in life as he was for his single presidential term, which ended in 1981. https://lnkd.in/d9qxSmTM *. *. *. *. * Note: This post was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graute_learning-to-work-hands-on-for-peace-from-activity-7279396908270309376-BBjV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
by Ulrich Graute 2 December 2024
In 2024, for the first time since 2000, the Parties to the United Nations Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate change, and desertification faced a very busy 3 months, moving from large Conferences of Parties (COP) in Cali (Colombia) for biodiversity in October to Baku (Azerbaijan) for climate in November to Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) for desertification in December. On top of this Triple-COP, there was the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development and the UN Summit of the Future in September in New York (USA) while UN-Habitat held its World Urban Forum in Cairo (Egypt), and let’s not forget the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5) which ended last weekend in Busan, South Korea. No real breakthroughs were reported but I noticed many promises to double future efforts. There is a lot that can be critically reviewed about the events, eg what’s the purpose of moving approximately 100.000+ delegates, UN staffers, and other participants worldwide if the necessary political will to agree and resources available are insufficient and the outcomes are limited accordingly? But such a critique would be a bit unfair since I don’t know how many new ideas and initiatives were born during those official meetings, side events, and informal chats that might bloom up in upcoming years despite of the multicrises we’re living in. What needs to be criticized is that the UN System is not progressing on its task to implement its many mandates more “synergistically” by targeting policies, programs, and initiatives to jointly address the goals of the Rio Conventions, SDGs, etc. Instead, the conferences referred to each other but worked mainly within their silos. This is not appropriate in a world full of interrelations and interdepensies. Well, no individual or group can follow up on every aspect, and swarm intelligence of conferences with thousands of participants each seems to be no functioning alternative. But what else could be done? To give an example: How about building an AI-based Large Language Model (LLM) trained with the UN Charter, all UN declarations, national and subnational resolutions, regulations, and programmes? AI Agents for the different conventions and agendas should then be asked to coordinate and propose “synergistic” proposals across policy levels. Of course, the use of artificial intelligence should be wisely supervised by a team of AI experts and professionals from all affected fields. I wouldn’t expect AI applications to solve all problems but to better inform decision-makers and UN agencies on integrated scenarios. This could help to increase efficiency, avoid duplicating efforts, and increase the overall problem-solving capacity of the UN. I would be happy to support such work with my governance and development experience across all policy levels. Picture source: https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/cop-nature-climate-adaptation-mitigation
by Ulrich Graute 14 November 2024
Since the first climate COP in 1995, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency has been representing local and regional governments at the processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The LGMA also represents ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners and Global Taskforce of Local and Regional Governments. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability acts as the Focal Point of LGMA. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point, recognizing the essential role of these governments in enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions NDSs and driving transformative climate action. The LGMA is atively present in Baku with a robust agenda, numerous partners, and an esteemed delegation of political leaders representing local and subnational governments. At the center of the presence is the Multilevel Action & Urbanization Pavilion as the global stage for the city and region climate agenda during COP29. The Pavilion brings into focus not only the challenges and needs, but also the accomplishments and commitments of local and subnational actors on climate action. The Pavilion is open from 12 to 22 November in the Blue Zone, Area E, Pavilion I15. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the High-Level Opening on 12 November at 10:00 AM. Please find the agenda of LGMA attached. Please visit also the Youtube channel of ICLEI Global for daily updates https://lnkd.in/dddDCKtA Ulrich Graute - ISOCARP Online Delegate at COP29 and Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee
by Ulrich Graute 19 October 2024
Report on the Urban Conversation on Ethical Use of AI in Urban Planning at the 60th World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy on 11 OCTOBER 2024
by Ulrich Graute 1 October 2024
Date: 11 October 2024 Time: 10:45 - 13:15 Room: Accademie. Fisiocritici Session background and a short description of the Content Cities form the heart of human development and innovation, with 80% of global GDP generated within them and according to the United Nations approximately 56% of the world’s population now live in cities, and likely to reach nearly 70% by 2050. At the same time, the urban world is on a journey to revitalize cities, build new cities for growing populations, to dismantle inequalities, and to create a sustainable urban legacy for future generations. The growth and demands of cities are rapidly changing and looking (or exploring) for new systems and planning tools. In this situation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides a transformative potential in managing and planning cities. It can support, analyze, and predict the impact of policy changes, demographic shifts and development plans. AI facilitates a valuable foundation for productive dialogue and constructive debate between municipal authorities, and the public and private sector. AI enables the People-focused city through systems integration and collaborations. Simultaneously, the application of generative AI in the public domain brings a number of risks and pitfalls. To assure an ethical use of the new wave of innovation in planning it is necessary to strike a careful balance between risk mitigation and harnessing its capabilities for public good and resilience. The central concept of modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the intelligent agent. As of today, we have limitations to building one general-purpose AI program that does everything, instead AI developers build different types of agent programs for different types of problems and contexts. AI researchers agree that the new wave of innovation will impact all spheres of life and require more actors for future developments of AI. The discussion on the use of AI cannot be left alone to IT programmers and code developers. In this context, the objective of the conversation is to bring together planning practitioners and experts from city-making to discuss the use and potential impact of AI in urban planning and management and the related leadership of ISOCARP in the global dialogue on AI governance and capacity building of planners. Recent examples eg from Australia and Saudi Arabia will be presented along with panel discussions. Session Organizers Dr Ulrich Graute, Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee, Berlin Dr Sunil Dubey, The UNSW Cities Institute, Sydney. 1. Introduction to the theme of the session by Ulrich Graute 2. The making of inclusive, prosperous and sustainable cities and the new challenges and opportunities provided by AI and Data 2.1 The case of Australia - Key note by Dr Sarah Hill, CEO Greater Sydney Commission and Western Parkland City Authority (New South Wales Govt, former) ‘Planning New Cities and Inclusive economic development’ - Western Sydney Aerotropolis – Australia’s 22nd Century City Making through Community, Creativity and Innovation. 2.2 The case of Saudi Arabia (10 min) Progress, Peace & Prosperity 2030 – How Saudi Cities are transforming using data and power of Ai. Dr Sunil Dubey 3. Roundtable Moderation: Ulrich Graute Guiding questions include AI in Urban Planning: Navigating the Intersection of Technology and Values – AI as a technical tool and/or as co-pilot in planning New Cities and inclusive economic development. Including AI in existing planning systems and processes and the requirement eg of a regulatory framework and capacity-building. What shape will AI have on future cities? ISOCARP and the new wave of technological innovation. Panelists: Sarah Hill, Executive Project Director (Public Investment Fund PIF, Saudi Arabia) Eric Huybrecht, Congress Director ISOCARP’s 60th WPC, Institute Paris Region Elisabeth Belpaire, ISOCARP President-Elect Ulrich Graute, Chair of ISOCARP SciCom Sunil Dubey, Smart Cities thought leader. Website of the 60th ISOCARP World Planning Congress https://isocarp.org/activities/60th-wpc-siena-2024/ Website of the Academy of Social Sciences (UK) AI in urban planning: risks and opportunities https://acss.org.uk/publications/ai-in-urban-planning-risks-and-opportunities/
by Ulrich Graute 15 August 2024
Privacy Communicting with AI raises privacy concerns A CV is personal documents including private information you may not want to share with everybody. Therefore, the sending of your CV to somebody (eg as part of an application or business offer) is usually considered as confidential. Using generative AI, for instance ChatGPT, to work on your CV, website or LinkedIn profile should be carefully considered because the info you share about yourself with ChatGPT stays with ChatGPT even if you delete it from your account after you finished your conversation. Nonetheless, I decided to take it easier using AI because my profile and CV is no secret in anyway. Through dozens of publications since the 1990s, speeches at many conferences worldwide, as blogger with an own website (www.ugraute.de) and a LinkedIn profile with close to 6000 followers you can find everything what’s written in my CV somewhere on the internet. And, most importantly, I carefully review everything that AI suggests to me, I review and finalize texts before I use them. While I cannot fully exclude misuse of information, the responsibility for the content of my website and CV remains with me. And I still use a CV version not aided by AI for business offers and applications. AI as a second eye - When should you consider using AI to review your CV and profile? After 16 years of mostly (but not only) working for the United Nations I am now shifting more attention beyond the UN to the private sector, national and local authorities, other international organizations, NGOs etc. All UN agencies have their own mandates, interests and priorities. As UN staffer and later as UN consultant I learnt the rules of the institution and lived with the limitations they generate for management and goal achievement. However, the UN, with its historical baggage of countless mandates, inadequate structures and resources and some overly cautious employees, at times stands in its own way. I want to continue supporting global cooperation using my global perspective, my skills in project and program management, cross-cultural communication, policy analysis and stakeholder cooperation. However, it is time to refocus and look at my skills and achievements from a different, a non-UN perspective. This is where AI comes into play as an additional opportunity to support the reorientation of my or your career. AI supports my own reflections on my interests and strategy and it does it in a very inspirational way. I recommend the same to others but, if possible, it should be only an opportunity in addition to exchange with friends, colleagues, books, trainers, coaches etc. How did I use Chat GPT to review my website and CV? ChatGPT is a conversational tool, and it’s for free in its basic version. You can login here: https://chatgpt.com/auth/login. After opening an account and login you find a box where you can enter you question (called prompt). You push Enter and get an answer within seconds. If the answer is not inspirational, correct or satisfying you just go on submitting a new or modified prompt. This way conversations with ChatGPT becomes conversational and easy. In this process ChatGPT gets to know you better and learns from your prompts. Prompting, ie formulating the right questions is key to get useful answers out of the conversation and it’s worth to spend some time training how to prompt. In my case, an earlier prompt submitted to ChatGPT had produced already this suggestion: “Adjust your communication style to match the language and expectations of non-UN clients, avoiding overly technical or UN-specific jargon.” That was the point when ChatGPT confirmed my own guess that I have to change communication when I look beyond the UN world. To further explore this, I submitted additional prompts including this one: “ChatGPT, please rewrite my CV in a style more appealing to private companies.” The answer after my own review and fine tuning produced the short CV version which you can find here: https://www.ugraute.de/bio-and-cv Could I have produced this without AI? Of course, I have produced two pages versions of my CV on my own. The point is, that many things which are super important at the UN as “ an animal of its own kind ” are not so relevant outside of the UN. In such situations it may take a lot of time to decide what to leave in and what to take out of your CV. A second eye like AI proposing specific cuts and a repackaging can be very inspirational and helpful to get a fresh and crispier look at your own experience and credentials. I also liked very much that ChatGPT explained its approach to me: “To make your CV more appealing to private companies, I'll focus on making the language more dynamic, emphasizing your key achievements, leadership roles, and strategic impact. I'll also streamline the format for clarity and brevity.” Of course, I reviewed the suggested version of my CV and other website texts revised by AI to confirm the correctness of the content. Overall, this review exercise is a test to use a new technical tool. It is certainly inspirational. Success remains to be seen but that is also the case when I review my CV for an application or if I review my website in a traditional way. I decided for an open approach to use AI and to talk about my personal experience in this post, because in this new wave of innovation, we are all learners and can help each other. As adviser, I like to share, teach, and keep learning, inside or outside of the UN.
by Ulrich Graute 8 August 2024
Figure: Human-in-the-loop intervention. ‘The Ethical Concerns of Artificial Intelligence in Urban Planning’ Thomas W. Sanchez, Marc Brenman, and Xinyue Ye (2024)
by Ulrich Graute 3 August 2024
Human Compatible - AI and the Problem of Control
by Ulrich Graute 9 July 2024
A slide from the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) presented at the opening of HLPF highlights that only 17% of the SDG targets are on track
by Ulrich Graute 5 July 2024
Background and Objectives The Gerd Albers Award (GAA) is celebrating inspiring publications such as books and essays. It was established in 1999 in honor of Professor Gerd Albers, a co-founder and past president of ISOCARP, who placed a particular emphasis on the task of publishing as a means of elucidating both the current debate and practical achievements in the planning field. This reputable award is given for the high-quality academic publications written by ISOCARP members. Eligible entries Pertinent submissions include the following publications by ISOCARP members published in the period between July 1, 2023, and June 31, 2024: • Books and/or Book chapters • Journal articles • Published project reports Exhibition catalogues and/or unpublished reports are ineligible. Unpublished journal articles are eligible if the publisher’s acceptance letter is attached to the article submitted. Evaluation criteria Content: • Thematic introduction • Contribution to discussions on the topic • Consistence and coherence (conceptual background, methodological approach) • Target audience Design: • Clarity • Technical requirements • Production Language All languages are eligible, although the “official languages” of the Society are English, French, German, and Spanish. Non-English entries must have an extended abstract in English (min. 3 pages). Jury The jury consists of three members of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee and the A&P Program Director. The deliberations and votes of the jury are confidential. Prof. Sebnem Hoskara Dr. Ulrich Graute Dr. Dorota Kamrowska-Załuska Prof. Ali A. Alraouf (A&P Program Director) Substance of the Award The Award is bestowed in three categories: GAA ‘Best Book’, GAA ‘Best Article’ and Special Mention. The Award winners are announced during the official ceremony at the ISOCARP annual World Planning Congress. GAA ‘Best Book’ and GAA ‘Best Article’ get two years of free membership to ISOCARP, official ISOCARP award certification and its dissemination through the ISOCARP website, social media and newsletter. Special Mention gets an official ISOCARP award certification and its dissemination through the ISOCARP website, social media and newsletter. Who is eligible? • Scholars • Writers • Book Authors • Researchers • Urban and City Critics • Professors and Academics Prize • Recognition at the ISOCARP 60th Congress in Siena at the Awards Special Session. • Certificate. • ISOCARP Medal. • Waiving form the registration for a single representative of the winners. • One year Membership at ISOCARP for a single representative of the winners. Registration fee 150 Euros for each entry in the Best Book Award (a candidate can apply with multiple proposals). 50 Euros for each entry in the Best Paper Award (a candidate can apply with multiple proposals). Submission material ⦁ Contribution (book/chapter/article) in pdf format Application procedure 1. Submit your online application https://isocarp.org/gerd-albers-award-2024-submission-form/ 2. Pay the registration fee: 150 Euros for Best Book Award and 50 Euros for Best Paper Award 3. Please, send your application to Ali Alraouf, ISOCARP Board member (alialraouf@isocarp.org) and ISOCARP HQ (awards@isocarp.org). Kindly specify the email subject: GAA 2024 Candidature. Deadline for submission August 15, 2024 Submit your application here https://isocarp.org/gerd-albers-award-2024-submission-form/
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