Remaining optimistic about sustainable and climate resilient cities and territories while the world stumbles from crisis into crisis
Ulrich Graute • 23 March 2022
Writing about and with optimism in times of crises and divisions is a challenge but I consider it as important.
The gap is widening between the future oriented global agendas like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG / 2030 Agenda; adopted in 2015), Paris Climate Agreement (2015), the New Urban Agenda (UN-Habitat 2016) and the crisis reality around the world. There are not only the wars in Ukraine, Yemen, climate crisis, hunger, inequality and multiple other crises around the world. These are interrelated and often reinforce each other. The grain not grown in Ukraine this year will worsen the food situation in countries like Yemen and Tunisia. And the currently ten million Ukrainian refugees (therefore of 3,5 million outside of Ukraine) will drain budgets across Europe. And who is proud about the fact that Germany is pursuing now a feminist foreign policy should also see that this innovation goes along with the government’s proposal to reduce the budget for development cooperation by 800 million Euros.* The ambitious and interrelated agendas for sustainable development and climate resilience were always difficult to achieve but probably nobody expected multiple additional challenges as the world faces today.
In the light of these developments and of other impacts not yet visible many pursue one of these paths: Some try to do business as usual by stoically implementing their ongoing projects; others are profoundly shocked and irritated by the many challenges and again others are at the brink of collapse and close to giving up all efforts. Understandable as doubts and weak spiritedness are, neither business as usual nor despair will help.
Some may dream now of a total revolution and to build up new systems from the scratch. But we have to be prudent: There is a high risk of uncontrolled chain reactions due to interrelations and interdependencies between different wars and other crises. Revolutions can be also destructive, eat their own children and end in new oppressive systems. In addition, the goals of the 2030 Agenda and Paris Climate Agreement are not wrong after all. Therefore, let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Instead, what’s necessary to do is the same that every autopilot in a car does when a driver misses a goal: ‘… Recalculating route … New route…”. In this post I list a few suggestions on how to recalculate the route to goal achievement.
1 Reviewing the state of sustainability and climate goals
There are global review mechanisms. For instance, the United Nations High Level Political Forum and Sustainable Development is responsible to review the 2030 Agenda and SDGs while the Conference of Parties (COP) does the same for the Paris Climate Agreement. However, in the current situation with one member of the Security Council invading another UN member state and impacting many other UN member states the UN system is limited in its possibilities and thus, it is unfit to generate more than incremental changes and cannot solve any of the major problems.
With the international politics captured in its system and not able to initiate its own reform change can only come from the outside. Local government, civil societies and all non-state actors are not involved in decision-making but bear the main load of impact by war and other crises. Without them governments cannot achieve their goals and this, in return, should give them the power to review goals and initiate change. If you like the resistance of Ukraine against Russian aggression or not, the example demonstrates how powerful the people of a smaller country can resist the power of the largest country in the world. Imagine this power would be used to revisit the global goals of sustainable development and climate resilience and to recalculate the route to goal achievement - it may even find the support of governments!
2 Prioritizing Peace, justice, institutions (SDG 16) and international partnership (SDG 17)
The implementation of 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement depend on voluntary cooperation, lags behind and might get derailed completely. Is this the end of the SDG and climate goals? There is a real risk but it’s not inevitable. There is no causal link. So, let’s look for a way out. In practice, the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement are not lost but to revive them and achieve their goals it’s necessary to prioritize two out of the Sustainable Development Goals:
• SDG 16 – Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
• SDG 17 - Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development
The common reading of the Sustainable Development Goals follows the numeric order starting with No Poverty (SDG 1), Zero Hunger (SDG 2), Good Health and Well-Being (SDG 3), Quality Education (SDG 4), Gender Equality (SDG 5) and so forth. The call for climate action and the link to the Paris Agreement is given by SDG 13.
All 17 SDGs are interrelated and interdependent and no hierarchy was intended for the 2030 Agenda. Nonetheless, the reality unfolding in front our eyes (or on our screens) tells us that without peace, justice, institutions (SDG 16) and international partnership (SDG 17) the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change are ‘dead agendas walking’ – and that not only in Ukraine and Russia but everywhere. Therefore, I suggest that it is time to learn reading the 2030 Agenda from the back to the front, starting with SDG 16 and 17. Yes, I also suggest to prioritize these two SDGs because they provide the key to reconnect the entire 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and possibly other development agendas with the dramatic and dynamic reality unfolding.
In all countries, be they democratic or autocratic there is a deal between the government and the people: The people accept the government as long as it delivers at least the public services of general interest (in German: Daseinsvorsorge) as expected by the people. And certainly, without healthy climate and a sustainable development people won’t survive. If governments are not able to deliver related services its power base will erode and eventually collapse. This needs to be discussed in all countries and it is a chance to realign governments and people on the need for action to assure climate resilience and sustainability. And the implementation begins as described by SDG 16 with building effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels. Based on that feasibility and diagnostic studies help to refocus and improve goal achievement.
3 Visioning sustainability and climate resilience inspired by a new narrative
In 2018, the United Nations through UN-Habitat sent me twice to Afghanistan to support the development of a National Urban Policy (NUP). In line with the National Urban Policy Programme of the UN and OECD I began with making the case for an NUP Afghanistan, i.e. by visioning the value added which an NUP might have for the people and the country. A lot of reasons were brought up against this approach and the main argument was that after so many years of war the need to provide basic urban services would be a lot more pressing than investing time and efforts in the visioning a long-term value added of a national urban policy. I couldn’t convince partners about the importance of visioning and a positive narrative to motivate especially young people to stay and invest in the future of the country.
We know what happened in summer 2021: After the withdrawal of the US and its NATO allies the country immediately collapsed and was retaken by the Taliban. I would never claim that a visionary NUP would have prevented that collapse. However, without a visionary narrative that outlines goals worth to engage for the government failed in rallying the people against the Taliban. Now in 2022 the world is surprised about the commitment of the Ukrainian people to defend their country against the power of the Russian aggression. But obviously in contrast to Afghan people, the Ukrainians share a vision of their own country and understand that it is worth to fight for it. Visions don’t substitute proper diagnostic and feasibility studies for future action but they deliver the inspiration needed.
Let’s learn from these examples and outline a new narrative for sustainability and climate goals. It certainly won’t be easy but our future and that of future generations are worth the effort. We are in the middle of a night and we stumble from crisis into crises but a new day may begin if we move along a new narrative, focus on peace, justice, accountable institutions and a recalculate the path to goal achievement. We can do it and I am glad if I can support the discussion e.g. with posts like this one.
In 2018, the United Nations through UN-Habitat sent me twice to Afghanistan to support the development of a National Urban Policy (NUP). In line with the National Urban Policy Programme of the UN and OECD I began with making the case for an NUP Afghanistan, i.e. by visioning the value added which an NUP might have for the people and the country. A lot of reasons were brought up against this approach and the main argument was that after so many years of war the need to provide basic urban services would be a lot more pressing than investing time and efforts in the visioning a long-term value added of a national urban policy. I couldn’t convince partners about the importance of visioning and a positive narrative to motivate especially young people to stay and invest in the future of the country.
We know what happened in summer 2021: After the withdrawal of the US and its NATO allies the country immediately collapsed and was retaken by the Taliban. I would never claim that a visionary NUP would have prevented that collapse. However, without a visionary narrative that outlines goals worth to engage for the government failed in rallying the people against the Taliban. Now in 2022 the world is surprised about the commitment of the Ukrainian people to defend their country against the power of the Russian aggression. But obviously in contrast to Afghan people, the Ukrainians share a vision of their own country and understand that it is worth to fight for it. Visions don’t substitute proper diagnostic and feasibility studies for future action but they deliver the inspiration needed.
Let’s learn from these examples and outline a new narrative for sustainability and climate goals. It certainly won’t be easy but our future and that of future generations are worth the effort. We are in the middle of a night and we stumble from crisis into crises but a new day may begin if we move along a new narrative, focus on peace, justice, accountable institutions and a recalculate the path to goal achievement. We can do it and I am glad if I can support the discussion e.g. with posts like this one.
* https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-turning-point-feminist-foreign-policy/
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/humanitaere-hilfe-es-wird-zeit-dass-die-menschlichkeit-erwacht-a-4543972d-7d58-4288-a287-73b19e959cc1
https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/humanitaere-hilfe-es-wird-zeit-dass-die-menschlichkeit-erwacht-a-4543972d-7d58-4288-a287-73b19e959cc1
Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions
None of the following supports the idea that urban sprawl is required or even helpful to build sustainable cities. However, it is argued that it may be part of the solution for the crisis of affordable housing in many countries of the world. With this post, I would like to encourage a debate, eg, at the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress #WPC61 on 1-4 December 2025 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In 1976 and alarmed by rapid and uncontrolled urban growth, particularly in the developing world, the UN General Assembly called for the First United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat I) addressing the challenges and future of human settlements. Housing remained at the focus of the United Nations Human Settlement Programme UN-Habitat ever since, and this was reconfirmed at Habitat III in Quito 2016. The New Urban Agenda recognizes and promotes a "right to the city," meaning the right of all inhabitants to have equal access to the benefits and opportunities that cities offer. It emphasizes a vision where urban spaces are designed and used collectively for the benefit of all, including those in informal settlements. Yes a vision, but overall, the Agenda is not very strategic and invites more to raising picking instead of integrated problem solving. Meanwhile, cities keep struggling to cope with fast urbanization, migration and growing demand for larger apartments. Urban sprawl is criticized since the 1950s and 60s because of its large demand for land. No densely populated urban areas have higher costs for the water, energy and transportation grid. In addition, developers often focus on profitable housing development while they don’t care for urban infrastructure, public spaces, schools etc. The New Urban Agenda promotes urban density as a key strategy for sustainable and efficient urban development but that doesn’t help those who a looking for housing now. Conor Dougherty is the author of the book Golden Gates: The Housing Crisis and a Reckoning for the American Dream published on 10 April 2025 in the New York Times the article “Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it.” He doesn’t make any effort to paint urban sprawl in rosy colors. Instead, he describes how eg in Princeton, Texas, the nation’s third-fastest-growing city, infrastructure has struggled to keep up with growth. He analyzes how difficult and slow-moving densification efforts in cities are and states, “Even if all the regulatory restraints were removed tomorrow, developers couldn’t find enough land to satisfy America’s housing needs inside established areas. Consequently, much of the nation’s housing growth has moved to states in the South and Southwest, where a surplus of open land and willingness to sprawl has turned the Sun Belt into a kind of national sponge that sops up housing demand from higher-cost cities. The largest metro areas there have about 20 percent of the nation’s population, but over the past five years they have built 42 percent of the nation’s new single-family homes, according to a recent report by Cullum Clark, an economist at the George W. Bush Institute, a research center in Dallas.” For instance, Celina, Texas (picture), has 54,000 residents, compared with 8,000 just a decade ago, and the population is projected to hit 110,000 by 2030. The lack of urbane infrastructure, employment, greenery, and community is striking, but people keep coming because of affordability. While planners and others prefer denser and walkable neighbourhoods like 15-minute-cities, the money to build related infrastructure in addition to houses is often missing or would reduce affordability. A dilemma. There are good reasons to criticize the trend described for the US by Conor Dougherty, but it provides a chance to attain affordable housing for people who cannot find it elsewhere. And the history of these satellite towns has demonstrated that the missing infrastructure, employment and community can be added lateron. It seems, urban sprawl is not the solution, but it might be part of the solution, isn’t it? Let's discuss this here or later on other occasions, like eg the 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress 'Cities & Regions in Action: Planning Pathways to Resilience and Quality of Life 1-4 December 2025, in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia #WPC61. Reference: Why America Should Sprawl. The word has become an epithet for garish, reckless growth — but to fix the housing crisis, the country needs more of it. By Conor Dougherty. The New York Times, April 10, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/magazine/suburban-sprawl-texas.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Click to see the map in the full scale or download map in pdf format here https://anatomyof.ai/img/ai-anatomy-map.pdf.
About the challenge of providing advice on governance and development in times of disruption and transition (English with German captatio ns) Deutsch: Ulrich spricht darüber, wie es ist, in Zeiten von Umbruch, Wandel und vielfachen Krisen als erfahrener Berater zu arbeiten. Obwohl die Situation nicht einfach ist, kann man daraus auch Chancen für effizientere Institutionen und Unternehmen sehen. Erfahrung und Flexibilität sind dabei wichtig, um neue Wege zu finden. English: Ulrich talks about working as an experienced consultant in times of upheaval, change, and multiple crises. Although the situation is not easy, we can also see opportunities for more efficient institutions and companies. Experience and flexibility are important to find new pathways.
"The development of highly capable AI is likely to be the biggest event in human history. The world must act decisively to ensure it is not the last event in human history. This conference, and the cooperative spirit of the AI Summit series, give me hope; but we must turn hope into action, soon, if there is to be a future we would want our children to live in." Professor Stuart Russell, IASEAI President and Distinguished Professor of Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley Please join me on 13 February 2025 at ARCS 9.0 for my keynote on 'Urban politics, planning, and economy in the Global South in times of fast developing AI' The two weeks before my conference presentation were full of dynamics in the field of AI, its politics, and development. First came the launch of the 500 billion US$ Stargate Project in the USA, followed by the launch of the Chinese open-source large language model (LLM) DeepSeek. On 6 February the International Association for Safe & Ethical AI held its inaugural conference in Paris, France. Prominent AI scientists including Stuart Russel and the 2024 Physics Nobel Laureate Geoffrey Hinton called for international cooperation to ensure safe and ethical artificial intelligence. On 10 and 11 February 2025, France co-chaired by India hosted the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit in Paris. The speeches by Heads of State and Government including the President of France, the Prime Minister of India, the President of the EU Commission, and the US Vice President gave the impression of how different countries of the world try to position themselves in a race for AI leadership. Urban politics, planning, and economy, not only in the Global South, need longer-term frameworks. How should digital transformation and urban planning be approached in cities facing multiple crises and the new wave of AI technological innovation? The latter is according to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others unprecedented in scale and speed but it is expected to affect all spheres of life. ARCS 9.0 schedule and Zoom link for Inaugural, plenaries and Valedictory. Date - 13th Feb to 15th Feb 2025 Join Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/95336599575?pwd=NExxgf8gBoubEfKRhhtbalM1ZYjQph.1 Meeting ID: 953 3659 9575
Source of the picture OpenAI: https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/
It was a tremendous privilege in my life to meet Rosalynn and Jimmy Carter for the first time in 1984 (picture) and then again in the summer of 1985 during my internship at Koinonia Farm near Americus, Georgia (USA). Jimmy Carter, who served as the 39th president of the U.S. from 1977 to 1981, died on December 29, 2024, at his home in Plains, Ga. Jimmy Carter was a lifelong farmer who worked with his hands building houses for the poor well into his 90s. I didn't agree with him on all issues (the early 1980s were the time of a new US missile deployment in Germany ordered by Jimmy Carter and a large peace movement against it) but he took the time to discuss it with me and others at Koinonia Farm. That alone was amazing. Even more mind-blowing was that he continued hands-on work on peacebuilding and house renovation for the poor around the world with Habitat for Humanity International well into his 90s. If in my career providing hands-on support became more important than climbing my own career path, this was also due to the example Jimmy Carter gave in the decades after his Presidency. I learned a lot from him about working for peace with humbleness, love, and perseverance. Read more in the New York Times about why Jimmy Carter was known as much for his charity and diplomatic work later in life as he was for his single presidential term, which ended in 1981. https://lnkd.in/d9qxSmTM *. *. *. *. * Note: This post was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graute_learning-to-work-hands-on-for-peace-from-activity-7279396908270309376-BBjV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
In 2024, for the first time since 2000, the Parties to the United Nations Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate change, and desertification faced a very busy 3 months, moving from large Conferences of Parties (COP) in Cali (Colombia) for biodiversity in October to Baku (Azerbaijan) for climate in November to Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) for desertification in December. On top of this Triple-COP, there was the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development and the UN Summit of the Future in September in New York (USA) while UN-Habitat held its World Urban Forum in Cairo (Egypt), and let’s not forget the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5) which ended last weekend in Busan, South Korea. No real breakthroughs were reported but I noticed many promises to double future efforts. There is a lot that can be critically reviewed about the events, eg what’s the purpose of moving approximately 100.000+ delegates, UN staffers, and other participants worldwide if the necessary political will to agree and resources available are insufficient and the outcomes are limited accordingly? But such a critique would be a bit unfair since I don’t know how many new ideas and initiatives were born during those official meetings, side events, and informal chats that might bloom up in upcoming years despite of the multicrises we’re living in. What needs to be criticized is that the UN System is not progressing on its task to implement its many mandates more “synergistically” by targeting policies, programs, and initiatives to jointly address the goals of the Rio Conventions, SDGs, etc. Instead, the conferences referred to each other but worked mainly within their silos. This is not appropriate in a world full of interrelations and interdepensies. Well, no individual or group can follow up on every aspect, and swarm intelligence of conferences with thousands of participants each seems to be no functioning alternative. But what else could be done? To give an example: How about building an AI-based Large Language Model (LLM) trained with the UN Charter, all UN declarations, national and subnational resolutions, regulations, and programmes? AI Agents for the different conventions and agendas should then be asked to coordinate and propose “synergistic” proposals across policy levels. Of course, the use of artificial intelligence should be wisely supervised by a team of AI experts and professionals from all affected fields. I wouldn’t expect AI applications to solve all problems but to better inform decision-makers and UN agencies on integrated scenarios. This could help to increase efficiency, avoid duplicating efforts, and increase the overall problem-solving capacity of the UN. I would be happy to support such work with my governance and development experience across all policy levels. Picture source: https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/cop-nature-climate-adaptation-mitigation
Since the first climate COP in 1995, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency has been representing local and regional governments at the processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The LGMA also represents ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners and Global Taskforce of Local and Regional Governments. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability acts as the Focal Point of LGMA. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point, recognizing the essential role of these governments in enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions NDSs and driving transformative climate action. The LGMA is atively present in Baku with a robust agenda, numerous partners, and an esteemed delegation of political leaders representing local and subnational governments. At the center of the presence is the Multilevel Action & Urbanization Pavilion as the global stage for the city and region climate agenda during COP29. The Pavilion brings into focus not only the challenges and needs, but also the accomplishments and commitments of local and subnational actors on climate action. The Pavilion is open from 12 to 22 November in the Blue Zone, Area E, Pavilion I15. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the High-Level Opening on 12 November at 10:00 AM. Please find the agenda of LGMA attached. Please visit also the Youtube channel of ICLEI Global for daily updates https://lnkd.in/dddDCKtA Ulrich Graute - ISOCARP Online Delegate at COP29 and Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee
Report on the Urban Conversation on Ethical Use of AI in Urban Planning at the 60th World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy on 11 OCTOBER 2024