It all began with a killer heatwave in India in 2026. It killed 20 million people in two weeks. That’s more than soldiers had died during the entire Second World War. After the heat the world was in shock and searched for a way out. In his novel ‘The Ministry for the Future’, published in October 2020 the American science fiction writer Kim Stanley Robinson tells us the story how a recently established subsidiary body of the Paris Climate Change Agreement (CMA) became the linchpin for that search.
The Paris Agreement Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted by 196 countries at the Conference of Partis COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. In line with the Agreement’s Article 16, clause 4, the COP “shall make the decisions necessary to promote the Agreement’s effective implementation by establishing subsidiary bodies as deemed necessary for the implementation of the Agreement.” At COP29, held in Bogota, Colombia in 2024 such a subsidiary body was created. The announcement said:
“Be it resolved that a Subsidiary Body authorized by this twenty-ninth Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the parties to the Paris Climate Agreement (CMA) is hereby established, to work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and all the agencies of the United Nations, and all the governments signatory to the Paris Agreement, to advocate for the world’s future generations of citizens, whose rights, as defined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, are as valid as our won. This new Subsidiary Body is furthermore charged with defending all living creatures present and future who cannot speak for themselves, by promoting their legal standing and physical protection.”
The new agency was established in Zurich, Switzerland, in January of 2025 and the media nicknamed it “the Ministry for the Future”.
The heatwave in India showed to the world the dramatic situation of the world vice versa climate change. And Robinson as author apparently thinks that such drama is a necessary precondition to trigger change.
And what kind of change? It is somewhat typical what happens at the world stage. It’s not that courageous world leaders would take the leader and launch a super big programme. No, while being shocked by the heat wave the world shifts all its attention to international cooperation, governance and management searching for a solution. And that is why I discuss the book in my governance blog ‘With burning patience’.
The team at the ministry analyses and concludes that
”Eleven policies would get it done, they all told her (note: her being Mary the head of the ministry). Carbon pricing, industry efficiency standards, land use policies, industrial process emissions regulations, complementary power sector policies, renewable portfolio standards, building codes and appliance standards, fuel economy standards, better urban transport, vehicle electrification, and feebates, which was to say carbon taxes passed back through to consumers. In essence: laws; Regulatory laws, already written and ready to go.” (page 251)
Really there seem to be no mysteries, in either the nature of the problem or the solution.
“And yet it’s not happening.” Mary observed.
The book in its 106 chapters and on its 565 pages circles around the struggle of the ministry to generate a meaningful impact on the climate crises.
As author Robinson takes the freedom to blend fact and fiction in a remarkable narrative around climate crisis. In more than 100 often very short chapters Robinson provides a lot of technical information but in a way easy to understand for non-economists and non-climate experts. He describes along the story of the novel how economists externalize the future value of resources out of their equation about what is economically valuable today. He describes black wings as illegal sub-entities of public organization which do the dirty work of killing adversaries. And he goes to the level of individuals by discussing the impact of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).
Well, not everybody will like all activities described: Groups called Children of Kali, Gaia’s Shock Troops, and others knock off selective wealthy people, target fossil fuel-burning transport, attack thermal power stations, calling it the War for the Earth. Hackers in an unknown location, are doing their bit to disrupt the systems that keep the global financial machine ticking.[1]
I haven’t finished the novel yet. It is suspenseful but due to the big load of technical information it doesn’t always feel like a novel. Therefore, it might be helpful to read it chapter by chapter and let the textbox passages sink before going on reading.
Of course, I am looking forward to read how the book will end.
It might end like in a romantic story: Two fellows from antagonistic countries who are not allowed to fraternize fall in love and it’s them who hold the key in their hands on how to solve life’s persistent questions. Well, but the world is too complex for a simple romantic solution. So, it is more likely that there is an ongoing struggle dealing with complex and dynamic problems and the governance of multi actor constellations where actors have different capabilities, interests, constellations and modes of interaction. I don’t expect that the novel will provide a happy ending but I would be surprised if it doesn’t end with signs of hope and plenty of inspiration. The rest is in any way up to us to deliver.
[1] Read the book review by
Ashish Kothari
https://www.firstpost.com/india/in-ministry-for-the-future-kim-stanley-robinson-blends-fact-and-fiction-in-a-remarkable-narrative-around-climate-crisis-9438421.html
It’s a roller coaster of a book, one of the most significant pieces of fiction on the climate and ecological crises thus far and must be read by all those in any position to act on what is clearly humanity’s biggest challenge. Mongabay- India March 19, 2021 15:19:37 IST https://www.firstpost.com/author/mongabay-india
Please, get your copy of the book from your trusted book seller near your home, e.g. Book Culture in New York on 112th Street (near Columbia University) or Dussmann on Friedrichstraße in Berlin where I found the book.