Blog Layout

Sustainable Germany (12): The industry's plan for a climate-neutral Germany in 2045

Ulrich Graute • 22 October 2021

The powerful Federation of German Industries (BDI) published a program for climate and Germany's future development

On 21 October 2021 Social democrats, the Greens and Liberals officially opened negotiations for the building of a new government. In Berlin twenty thematic working groups started searching for common ground for the future governmental programme. It's quality is expected to reveal if the new coalition will meet at the lowest common denominator or if it aims at a big hit transforming the country and its economy towards climate neutrality. 


Now that the likeliness of a new government with a strong climate policy is growing all stakeholder groups speak up to impact the outcome. Certainly, in a modern and highly industrialized country like Germany the Federation of German Industries (BDI) is among the most powerful voices. The BDI is working to ensure that Germany remains an industrialized country, one that is export-oriented and innovative. Germany's economy is based on a strong industrial core. Its success hinges on deep-rooted industrial value chains with more than 100,000 large, medium-sized and small companies from all sectors of the manufacturing industry, which together employ more than eight million people. Almost a quarter of Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) is generated by German industry. If industry-related services are included, this goes up to around one-third of GDP. Together with industry-related services, industry forms the growth core of the German economy. (source: english.bdi.eu/)


The BDI is not known as a frontrunner supporting the transformation of the German economy towards climate-neutrality. But times are changing. With major industries like the energy sector and automotive industry already in full swing entering the transformation climate neutrality is becoming key to keeping German industries competitive. Already the last Merkel government updated the Climate Change Act in 2021 raising significantly the country's climate targets to limit the effects of climate change. And now that a new federal government in Berlin may take include a 'climate government' the BDI as the most important lobby organization of German industries has to jump on the boat if it doesn't want to be left behind. 


More than 150 experts of the Boston Consulting Group, the Federation of German Industries, and around 80 companies and associations contributed between March and September 2021 to the process leading on 21 October to the launch of the study 'Climate Paths 2.0 - A Program for Climate and Germany's Future Development'.[1]


The most important aspect about the study is that now all relevant stakeholders in the country take a goal oriented implementation of the Paris Agreement as a serious option and formulate not only their won option bus also practical proposals. This is not a guarantee for success but it is a precondition for a constructive solution oriented dialogue. 


[1] https://english.bdi.eu/publication/news/climate-paths-2-0-a-program-for-climate-and-germanys-future-development/ - accessed on 22 October 2021




While the full text of the study is available in English and German following the above link I document in this post three illustrations.



The first illustrations summarizes an outlook on major changes needed by 2045 to make Germany climate-neutral (sources page 6-7).


The second illustration lines up steps to be taken as part of the Climate Path 2.0


For instance, the implementation of climate protection measures will require additional investments of around 860 billion euros by 2030, which the state, citizens and companies will have to raise. That corresponds to around 100 billion euros per year. Germany must undertake its greatest transformation in its post-war history. That is a lot but according to the BDI it is a path that can lead Germany to goal achievement.



The third illustration taken from the report lists instruments needed in addition to existing instruments (source: page 22-23).


For the full documentation of the study Climate Paths 2.0 – A Program for Climate and Germany's Future Development in German and in English please visit the website of the Federation of German Industries (BDI)

https://bdi.eu/themenfelder/energie-und-klima/klimapfade/

Policies and Governance for Resilient and Sustainable Cities and Regions

We need the United Nations to be part of the solution, not of the problem

by Ulrich Graute • 8 March 2025
Picture: UN photo

Anatomy of an AI System

by Ulrich Graute • 25 February 2025
Click to see the map in the full scale or download map in pdf format here https://anatomyof.ai/img/ai-anatomy-map.pdf.

About the challenge of providing advice on governance and development in times of disruption and transition

by Ulrich Graute • 22 February 2025
About the challenge of providing advice on governance and development in times of disruption and transition (English with German captatio ns) Deutsch: Ulrich spricht darüber, wie es ist, in Zeiten von Umbruch, Wandel und vielfachen Krisen als erfahrener Berater zu arbeiten. Obwohl die Situation nicht einfach ist, kann man daraus auch Chancen für effizientere Institutionen und Unternehmen sehen. Erfahrung und Flexibilität sind dabei wichtig, um neue Wege zu finden. English: Ulrich talks about working as an experienced consultant in times of upheaval, change, and multiple crises. Although the situation is not easy, we can also see opportunities for more efficient institutions and companies. Experience and flexibility are important to find new pathways.

Urban politics, planning and economy in the Global South in times of fast developing AI

by Ulrich Graute • 12 February 2025
"The development of highly capable AI is likely to be the biggest event in human history. The world must act decisively to ensure it is not the last event in human history. This conference, and the cooperative spirit of the AI Summit series, give me hope; but we must turn hope into action, soon, if there is to be a future we would want our children to live in." Professor Stuart Russell, IASEAI President and Distinguished Professor of Computer Science at the University of California, Berkeley Please join me on 13 February 2025 at ARCS 9.0 for my keynote on 'Urban politics, planning, and economy in the Global South in times of fast developing AI' The two weeks before my conference presentation were full of dynamics in the field of AI, its politics, and development. First came the launch of the 500 billion US$ Stargate Project in the USA, followed by the launch of the Chinese open-source large language model (LLM) DeepSeek. On 6 February the International Association for Safe & Ethical AI held its inaugural conference in Paris, France. Prominent AI scientists including Stuart Russel and the 2024 Physics Nobel Laureate Geoffrey Hinton called for international cooperation to ensure safe and ethical artificial intelligence. On 10 and 11 February 2025, France co-chaired by India hosted the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit in Paris. The speeches by Heads of State and Government including the President of France, the Prime Minister of India, the President of the EU Commission, and the US Vice President gave the impression of how different countries of the world try to position themselves in a race for AI leadership. Urban politics, planning, and economy, not only in the Global South, need longer-term frameworks. How should digital transformation and urban planning be approached in cities facing multiple crises and the new wave of AI technological innovation? The latter is according to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others unprecedented in scale and speed but it is expected to affect all spheres of life. ARCS 9.0 schedule and Zoom link for Inaugural, plenaries and Valedictory. Date - 13th Feb to 15th Feb 2025 Join Zoom Meeting https://zoom.us/j/95336599575?pwd=NExxgf8gBoubEfKRhhtbalM1ZYjQph.1 Meeting ID: 953 3659 9575

The 500 bn US$ Stargate Project - Places seem to matter more, Urban Planning and AI governance less or not at all

by Ulrich Graute • 22 January 2025
Source of the picture OpenAI: https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/

Learning to work hands-on for peace from former US-President Jimmy Carter

by Ulrich Graute • 1 January 2025
It was a tremendous privilege in my life to meet Rosalynn and Jimmy Carter for the first time in 1984 (picture) and then again in the summer of 1985 during my internship at Koinonia Farm near Americus, Georgia (USA). Jimmy Carter, who served as the 39th president of the U.S. from 1977 to 1981, died on December 29, 2024, at his home in Plains, Ga. Jimmy Carter was a lifelong farmer who worked with his hands building houses for the poor well into his 90s. I didn't agree with him on all issues (the early 1980s were the time of a new US missile deployment in Germany ordered by Jimmy Carter and a large peace movement against it) but he took the time to discuss it with me and others at Koinonia Farm. That alone was amazing. Even more mind-blowing was that he continued hands-on work on peacebuilding and house renovation for the poor around the world with Habitat for Humanity International well into his 90s. If in my career providing hands-on support became more important than climbing my own career path, this was also due to the example Jimmy Carter gave in the decades after his Presidency. I learned a lot from him about working for peace with humbleness, love, and perseverance. Read more in the New York Times about why Jimmy Carter was known as much for his charity and diplomatic work later in life as he was for his single presidential term, which ended in 1981. https://lnkd.in/d9qxSmTM *. *. *. *. * Note: This post was first published on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/graute_learning-to-work-hands-on-for-peace-from-activity-7279396908270309376-BBjV?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

The United Nations risks drowning in its mandates, conferences and external expectations. Could Artificial Intelligence help the UN?

by Ulrich Graute • 2 December 2024
In 2024, for the first time since 2000, the Parties to the United Nations Rio Conventions on biodiversity, climate change, and desertification faced a very busy 3 months, moving from large Conferences of Parties (COP) in Cali (Colombia) for biodiversity in October to Baku (Azerbaijan) for climate in November to Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) for desertification in December. On top of this Triple-COP, there was the UN High Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development and the UN Summit of the Future in September in New York (USA) while UN-Habitat held its World Urban Forum in Cairo (Egypt), and let’s not forget the fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5) which ended last weekend in Busan, South Korea. No real breakthroughs were reported but I noticed many promises to double future efforts. There is a lot that can be critically reviewed about the events, eg what’s the purpose of moving approximately 100.000+ delegates, UN staffers, and other participants worldwide if the necessary political will to agree and resources available are insufficient and the outcomes are limited accordingly? But such a critique would be a bit unfair since I don’t know how many new ideas and initiatives were born during those official meetings, side events, and informal chats that might bloom up in upcoming years despite of the multicrises we’re living in. What needs to be criticized is that the UN System is not progressing on its task to implement its many mandates more “synergistically” by targeting policies, programs, and initiatives to jointly address the goals of the Rio Conventions, SDGs, etc. Instead, the conferences referred to each other but worked mainly within their silos. This is not appropriate in a world full of interrelations and interdepensies. Well, no individual or group can follow up on every aspect, and swarm intelligence of conferences with thousands of participants each seems to be no functioning alternative. But what else could be done? To give an example: How about building an AI-based Large Language Model (LLM) trained with the UN Charter, all UN declarations, national and subnational resolutions, regulations, and programmes? AI Agents for the different conventions and agendas should then be asked to coordinate and propose “synergistic” proposals across policy levels. Of course, the use of artificial intelligence should be wisely supervised by a team of AI experts and professionals from all affected fields. I wouldn’t expect AI applications to solve all problems but to better inform decision-makers and UN agencies on integrated scenarios. This could help to increase efficiency, avoid duplicating efforts, and increase the overall problem-solving capacity of the UN. I would be happy to support such work with my governance and development experience across all policy levels. Picture source: https://www.iisd.org/articles/policy-analysis/cop-nature-climate-adaptation-mitigation

THE GLOBAL STAGE FOR CITIES AND REGIONS AT THE UN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE BAKU (COP29), NOVEMBER 2024

by Ulrich Graute • 14 November 2024
Since the first climate COP in 1995, the Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency has been representing local and regional governments at the processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The LGMA also represents ISOCARP - International Society of City and Regional Planners and Global Taskforce of Local and Regional Governments. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability acts as the Focal Point of LGMA. The 2015 Paris Agreement marked a turning point, recognizing the essential role of these governments in enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions NDSs and driving transformative climate action. The LGMA is atively present in Baku with a robust agenda, numerous partners, and an esteemed delegation of political leaders representing local and subnational governments. At the center of the presence is the Multilevel Action & Urbanization Pavilion as the global stage for the city and region climate agenda during COP29. The Pavilion brings into focus not only the challenges and needs, but also the accomplishments and commitments of local and subnational actors on climate action. The Pavilion is open from 12 to 22 November in the Blue Zone, Area E, Pavilion I15. We are looking forward to welcoming you at the High-Level Opening on 12 November at 10:00 AM. Please find the agenda of LGMA attached. Please visit also the Youtube channel of ICLEI Global for daily updates https://lnkd.in/dddDCKtA Ulrich Graute - ISOCARP Online Delegate at COP29 and Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee

Planning New Inclusive Cities using Smart Tech and Artificial Intelligence

by Ulrich Graute • 19 October 2024
Report on the Urban Conversation on Ethical Use of AI in Urban Planning at the 60th World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy on 11 OCTOBER 2024

Ethical use of Artificial Intelligence in Planning - Join our Urban Conversation on 11 October 2024 at the 60th ISOCARP World Planning Congress in Siena, Italy

by Ulrich Graute • 1 October 2024
Date: 11 October 2024 Time: 10:45 - 13:15 Room: Accademie. Fisiocritici Session background and a short description of the Content Cities form the heart of human development and innovation, with 80% of global GDP generated within them and according to the United Nations approximately 56% of the world’s population now live in cities, and likely to reach nearly 70% by 2050. At the same time, the urban world is on a journey to revitalize cities, build new cities for growing populations, to dismantle inequalities, and to create a sustainable urban legacy for future generations. The growth and demands of cities are rapidly changing and looking (or exploring) for new systems and planning tools. In this situation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides a transformative potential in managing and planning cities. It can support, analyze, and predict the impact of policy changes, demographic shifts and development plans. AI facilitates a valuable foundation for productive dialogue and constructive debate between municipal authorities, and the public and private sector. AI enables the People-focused city through systems integration and collaborations. Simultaneously, the application of generative AI in the public domain brings a number of risks and pitfalls. To assure an ethical use of the new wave of innovation in planning it is necessary to strike a careful balance between risk mitigation and harnessing its capabilities for public good and resilience. The central concept of modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the intelligent agent. As of today, we have limitations to building one general-purpose AI program that does everything, instead AI developers build different types of agent programs for different types of problems and contexts. AI researchers agree that the new wave of innovation will impact all spheres of life and require more actors for future developments of AI. The discussion on the use of AI cannot be left alone to IT programmers and code developers. In this context, the objective of the conversation is to bring together planning practitioners and experts from city-making to discuss the use and potential impact of AI in urban planning and management and the related leadership of ISOCARP in the global dialogue on AI governance and capacity building of planners. Recent examples eg from Australia and Saudi Arabia will be presented along with panel discussions. Session Organizers Dr Ulrich Graute, Chair of the ISOCARP Scientific Committee, Berlin Dr Sunil Dubey, The UNSW Cities Institute, Sydney. 1. Introduction to the theme of the session by Ulrich Graute 2. The making of inclusive, prosperous and sustainable cities and the new challenges and opportunities provided by AI and Data 2.1 The case of Australia - Key note by Dr Sarah Hill, CEO Greater Sydney Commission and Western Parkland City Authority (New South Wales Govt, former) ‘Planning New Cities and Inclusive economic development’ - Western Sydney Aerotropolis – Australia’s 22nd Century City Making through Community, Creativity and Innovation. 2.2 The case of Saudi Arabia (10 min) Progress, Peace & Prosperity 2030 – How Saudi Cities are transforming using data and power of Ai. Dr Sunil Dubey 3. Roundtable Moderation: Ulrich Graute Guiding questions include AI in Urban Planning: Navigating the Intersection of Technology and Values – AI as a technical tool and/or as co-pilot in planning New Cities and inclusive economic development. Including AI in existing planning systems and processes and the requirement eg of a regulatory framework and capacity-building. What shape will AI have on future cities? ISOCARP and the new wave of technological innovation. Panelists: Sarah Hill, Executive Project Director (Public Investment Fund PIF, Saudi Arabia) Eric Huybrecht, Congress Director ISOCARP’s 60th WPC, Institute Paris Region Elisabeth Belpaire, ISOCARP President-Elect Ulrich Graute, Chair of ISOCARP SciCom Sunil Dubey, Smart Cities thought leader. Website of the 60th ISOCARP World Planning Congress https://isocarp.org/activities/60th-wpc-siena-2024/ Website of the Academy of Social Sciences (UK) AI in urban planning: risks and opportunities https://acss.org.uk/publications/ai-in-urban-planning-risks-and-opportunities/
More posts

Contact Ulrich Graute

Share by: